Diabetes Prevalence in Sweden at Present and Projections for Year 2050.
Diabetes Prevalence in Sweden at Present and Projections for Year 2050.
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DOI：
10.1371/journal.pone.0143084
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发表时间：
2015
期刊：
影响因子：
3.7
通讯作者：
Carlsson S
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
Andersson T;Ahlbom A;Carlsson S
关于斯堪的纳维亚未来糖尿病负担的数据有限。我们的目的是通过对发病率、患病率、死亡率和人口因素的数据建模，预测瑞典未来糖尿病的负担。为了预测糖尿病的未来负担，我们使用了来自国家药物处方注册处（≥20岁的成人）的糖尿病患病率信息，先前发表的糖尿病患者相对死亡率数据，以及瑞典统计局的人口统计学和预测。根据关于糖尿病未来发病率的不同假设，创建了替代方案。2007年至2013年，瑞典糖尿病患病率从5.8%上升至6.8%，但发病率保持不变，为4.4/1000（2013）。随着发病率的稳定和相对生存率的持续提高，到2050年，患病率将增加到10.4%，患病人数将增加到940 000人。在这一增长中，30%是由于人口年龄结构的变化，14%是由于糖尿病患者相对生存率的提高。假设发病率每年上升1%，则患病率为12.6%，病例数为1136000例。即使发病率以每年1%的速度下降，糖尿病的患病率仍将继续增加。我们可以预计，由于人口结构的变化和糖尿病患者生存率的提高，瑞典的糖尿病患病率将在未来35年内大幅上升。为了防止这种发展，需要大幅降低发病率。
Data on the future diabetes burden in Scandinavia is limited. Our aim was to project the future burden of diabetes in Sweden by modelling data on incidence, prevalence, mortality, and demographic factors. To project the future burden of diabetes we used information on the prevalence of diabetes from the national drug prescription registry (adults ≥20 years), previously published data on relative mortality in people with diabetes, and population demographics and projections from Statistics Sweden. Alternative scenarios were created based on different assumptions regarding the future incidence of diabetes. Between 2007 and 2013 the prevalence of diabetes rose from 5.8 to 6.8% in Sweden but incidence remained constant at 4.4 per 1000 (2013). With constant incidence and continued improvement in relative survival, prevalence will increase to 10.4% by year 2050 and the number of afflicted individuals will increase to 940 000. Of this rise, 30% is accounted for by changes in the age structure of the population and 14% by improved relative survival in people with diabetes. A hypothesized 1% annual rise in incidence will result in a prevalence of 12.6% and 1 136 000 cases. Even with decreasing incidence at 1% per year, prevalence of diabetes will continue to increase. We can expect diabetes prevalence to rise substantially in Sweden over the next 35 years as a result of demographic changes and improved survival among people with diabetes. A dramatic reduction in incidence is required to prevent this development.