Per capita output convergence across Asian countries: Evidence from covariate unit root test with an endogenous structural break
Per capita output convergence across Asian countries: Evidence from covariate unit root test with an endogenous structural break
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亚洲国家人均产出趋同：来自内生结构断裂的协变量单位根检验的证据
DOI：
10.1016/j.econmod.2019.03.005
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发表时间：
2019
影响因子：
4.7
通讯作者：
Takashi Matsuki
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
Gilles Dufrenot;Takashi Matsuki and Kimiko Sugimoto;Ming-Jen Chang and Takashi Matsuki;Takashi Matsuki
本研究利用可能使亚洲各国走上长期稳定增长道路的经济增长决定因素，对1960年至2014年亚洲10个国家的人均产出的长期收敛性进行了研究，同时考察了该地区产出收敛的存在性，以及这些经济增长决定因素的统计意义。用平稳协变量的单位根检验。此外，这项研究考虑到所调查的时间序列中存在内在结构变化，以捕捉人均产出的急剧下降，这种下降可能是由有影响力的经济事件造成的，如国内经济的严重经济衰退或1997-98年和2008-09年的全球金融危机。允许结构突变的协变量单位根检验的极限分布也来自。研究结果表明，显著的证据支持收敛假说。特别是，渐近绝对收敛在香港，韩国，新加坡和台湾之间成立。此外，泰国表现出收敛趋势，渐近相对收敛到新加坡。马来西亚、印度尼西亚和印度也在渐进相对意义上向香港靠拢。某些潜在的增长决定因素，如贸易/国内生产总值比率、通货膨胀率、政府支出/国内生产总值比率和人力资本质量，可能有助于这些国家实现并保持向本区域参照国靠拢的长期进程。
This study investigates long-run convergence of per capita output across ten Asian countries over 1960 to 2014 by taking advantage of possible economic growth determinants, which may be responsible for setting Asian countries on a long-term steady-state growth path. We simultaneously examine the presence of output convergence in the region, as well as the statistical significance of these economic growth determinants, by using a unit root test with a stationary covariate. In addition, the study allows for the presence of endogenous structural changes in the time series under investigation in order to capture sharp drops in per capita outputs, which may be brought about by influential economic events, such as serious economic slumps in domestic economies or the global financial crises in 1997–98 and 2008–09. The limiting distribution of the covariate unit root test that permits structural breaks is also derived. The results show significant evidence to support the convergence hypothesis. In particular, asymptotically absolute convergence holds among Hong Kong, Korea, Singapore, and Taiwan. In addition, Thailand shows a convergence tendency in terms of asymptotically relative convergence toward Singapore. Malaysia, Indonesia, and India also turn out to converge toward Hong Kong in an asymptotically relative sense. Certain potential growth determinants, such as the trade/GDP ratio, inflation rate, government expenditure/GDP ratio, and quality of human capital, may help these countries achieve and maintain the long-run convergence process toward the reference countries in the region.