The effect of population aging on future hospital demand
The effect of population aging on future hospital demand
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DOI：
10.1377/hlthaff.25.w141
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发表时间：
2006-05-01
期刊：
影响因子：
9.7
通讯作者：
Banker, Michelle I.
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Strunk, Bradley C.;Ginsburg, Paul B.;Banker, Michelle I.
这项分析研究了美国人口年龄分布的变化，反映了婴儿潮一代的老龄化和寿命的延长，将如何影响未来十年对医院住院服务的需求。在此期间，老龄化将推动服务使用量每年增长约0.74%。老龄化对住院需求的影响因医疗条件而异，老年患者使用的服务增长率最高。然而，即使对这些服务来说，老龄化也是一个远不如当地人口趋势和医疗技术进步导致的不断变化的实践模式重要的因素。
This analysis examines how shifts in the age distribution of the U.S. population, reflecting both the aging of the baby-boom generation and increased longevity, will affect demand for hospital inpatient services during the next ten years. Over that period, aging will drive about 0.74 percent annual growth in use of services. Aging's effect on inpatient demand varies by medical condition, with the highest rates of growth in services most used by elderly patients. Even for those services, however, aging is a much less important factor than local population trends and changing practice patterns attributable to advancing medical technology.