The Nexus between Public Debt and the Government Spending Multiplier: Fiscal Adjustments Matter
The Nexus between Public Debt and the Government Spending Multiplier: Fiscal Adjustments Matter
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公共债务与政府支出乘数之间的关系：财政调整很重要
DOI：
10.1111/obes.12547
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发表时间：
2022
影响因子：
2.5
通讯作者：
Hirokuni Iiboshi
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Yasuharu Iwata;Hirokuni Iiboshi
本文利用时变参数VAR模型研究了战后美国政府支出乘数的演变。我们通过对政策规则和脉冲响应的系统组成部分施加符号和零限制来实现识别。我们的研究结果表明，美国在后OBRA93时期的乘数小于20世纪70年代的乘数。乘数被发现与债务稳定规则的估计系数比债务与国内生产总值的比率更密切相关。财政调整力度的加大似乎是乘数下降的主要驱动力，而不是债务积累本身。
This paper studies the evolution of government spending multipliers in the post‐war USA using a time‐varying parameter VAR model. We achieve identification by imposing sign and zero restrictions on the systematic component of policy rules and impulse responses. Our results show that the US multipliers in the post‐OBRA93 period are smaller than those in the 1970s. The multipliers are found to be more strongly correlated with the estimated coefficients of the debt‐stabilizing rule than the debt‐to‐gross domestic product ratios. The increased magnitude of fiscal adjustments appears to be the major driving force behind the decline in multipliers rather than debt accumulation itself.