Polar facts in the age of polarization
Polar facts in the age of polarization
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DOI：
10.1080/1088937x.2015.1051158
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发表时间：
2015-01-01
期刊：
影响因子：
2.6
通讯作者：
Hamilton, Lawrence C.
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Hamilton, Lawrence C.
极地地区变化的许多驱动因素源于中纬度工业社会，因此那里的公众看法很重要。基于对美国公众知识和担忧的早期调查，新罕布什尔州在2011年至2015年期间进行了一系列调查，追踪了公众对一些基本极地事实的了解。分析表明，这些事实在主观上分为两类：与气候变化信念直接相关或不直接相关的事实。对与气候有关的事实问题的回答，比如北极海冰面积是否比30年前减少，都被政治化了，就好像我们是在征求气候变化的意见一样。政治分歧在与气候变化无关的事实问题上不那么明显，比如北极是在陆地上还是在海洋上。只有38%的受访者能正确回答这个问题，甚至更少（30%）的人知道或猜对格陵兰岛和南极陆地冰的融化，而不是北极海冰的融化，可能对海平面上升起到最大的作用。与低水平的事实知识不一致的是，大多数受访者表示他们对气候变化有适度或大量的了解。低知识与高自我评估理解的结合几乎占我们样本的一半，并且与政治观点相关。低知识/高理解的组合在茶党支持者中最为普遍，达到61%。这种情况也经常发生在不相信气候正在变化的人群中（60%）。这些结果强调，与具有不同确定性和知识配置的人进行科学交流需要不同的方法。
Many drivers of polar-region change originate in mid-latitude industrial societies, so public perceptions there matter. Building on earlier surveys of US public knowledge and concern, a series of New Hampshire state surveys over 2011-2015 tracked public knowledge of some basic polar facts. Analysis indicates that these facts subjectively fall into two categories: those that are or are not directly connected to beliefs about climate change. Responses to climate-linked factual questions, such as whether Arctic sea ice area has declined compared with 30 years ago, are politicized as if we were asking for climate-change opinions. Political divisions are less apparent with factual questions that do not suggest climate change, such as whether the North Pole is on land or sea ice. Only 38% of respondents could answer that question correctly, and even fewer (30%) knew or guessed correctly that melting of Greenland and Antarctic land ice, rather than Arctic sea ice, could potentially do the most to raise sea levels. At odds with the low levels of factual knowledge, most respondents say they have a moderate amount or a great deal of understanding about climate change. A combination of low knowledge with high self-assessed understanding characterizes almost half our sample and correlates with political views. The low knowledge/high understanding combination is most prevalent among Tea Party supporters, where it reaches 61%. It also occurs often (60%) among people who do not believe climate is changing. These results emphasize that diverse approaches are needed to communicate about science with people having different configurations of certainty and knowledge.