High-Resolution Agent-Based Modeling of COVID-19 Spreading in a Small Town
High-Resolution Agent-Based Modeling of COVID-19 Spreading in a Small Town
复制标题
DOI：
10.1002/adts.202000277
复制
发表时间：
2021-01-18
影响因子：
3.3
通讯作者：
Porfiri, Maurizio
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Truszkowska, Agnieszka;Behring, Brandon;Porfiri, Maurizio
在新冠肺炎 (COVID-19) 疫情持续蔓延之际，公共卫生当局和广大民众正在努力在安全与正常之间取得平衡。不断变化的条件要求开发理论和模拟工具来精细描述社会的多个阶层，同时支持“假设”场景的评估。尤其重要的是评估潜在检测方法和疫苗接种策略的有效性。在此，提出了一个基于代理的建模平台，以单个体分辨率模拟 COVID-19 在小城镇和城市中的传播。该平台根据纽约州新罗谢尔的真实数据进行了验证，该州是美国最早记录的疫情爆发之一。在专家知识的支持和报告数据的支持下，该模型纳入了统计上现实的人群中传播的详细要素。除了检测、治疗和疫苗接种选项等相关功能外，该模型还考虑了具有与 COVID-19 类似症状的其他疾病的负担。该模型的独特之处在于可以探索不同的检测方法（在医院或免下车设施中）以及优先考虑弱势群体的疫苗接种策略。公共当局的决策可以从该模型中受益，因为它具有细粒度的分辨率、开源性质和广泛的功能。
Amid the ongoing COVID-19 pandemic, public health authorities and the general population are striving to achieve a balance between safety and normalcy. Ever changing conditions call for the development of theory and simulation tools to finely describe multiple strata of society while supporting the evaluation of "what-if" scenarios. Particularly important is to assess the effectiveness of potential testing approaches and vaccination strategies. Here, an agent-based modeling platform is proposed to simulate the spreading of COVID-19 in small towns and cities, with a single-individual resolution. The platform is validated on real data from New Rochelle, NY-one of the first outbreaks registered in the United States. Supported by expert knowledge and informed by reported data, the model incorporates detailed elements of the spreading within a statistically realistic population. Along with pertinent functionality such as testing, treatment, and vaccination options, the model accounts for the burden of other illnesses with symptoms similar to COVID-19. Unique to the model is the possibility to explore different testing approaches-in hospitals or drive-through facilities-and vaccination strategies that could prioritize vulnerable groups. Decision-making by public authorities could benefit from the model, for its fine-grain resolution, open-source nature, and wide range of features.