Impacts of Temperature and its Variability on Mortality in New England.
Impacts of Temperature and its Variability on Mortality in New England.
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DOI：
10.1038/nclimate2704
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发表时间：
2015-11
影响因子：
30.7
通讯作者：
Schwartz JD
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Shi L;Kloog I;Zanobetti A;Liu P;Schwartz JD
温室气体的迅速积累预计会增加地球表面的平均温度，对温度变化的影响尚不清楚。这增加了更好地了解气候变化对人类健康的直接影响的紧迫性。然而，长期暴露于温度的影响，这对于理解公共卫生负担很重要，目前还不清楚。在这里，我们证明了长期生存率与新英格兰医疗保险人群（65岁以上）的季节平均值和温度标准差（SD）显着相关，并将其分解为邮政编码和年度异常之间的长期对比。夏季平均温度升高1 °C，死亡率增加1.0%，而冬季平均温度升高，死亡率降低0.6%。夏季和冬季温度标准差的增加都是有害的。在温暖的夏天死亡率的增加完全是由于异常，而它是长期的平均差异，在夏季SD的邮政编码，推动风险增加。对于未来的气候情景，季节平均温度可能部分地解释了公共健康负担，但气候变化的过度公共健康风险也可能源于季节内温度变率的变化。
Rapid buildup of greenhouse gases is expected to increase the Earth surface mean temperature, with unclear effects on temperature variability. This adds urgency to better understand the direct effects of the changing climate on human health. However, the effects of prolonged exposures to temperatures, which are important for understanding the public health burden, are unclear. Here we demonstrate that long-term survival was significantly associated with both seasonal mean values and standard deviations (SDs) of temperature among the Medicare population (aged 65+) in New England, and break that down into long-term contrasts between ZIP codes and annual anomalies. A rise in summer mean temperature of 1 °C was associated with 1.0% higher death rate whereas an increase in winter mean temperature corresponded to 0.6% lower mortality. Increases in temperature SDs for both summer and winter were harmful. The increased mortality in warmer summers was entirely due to anomalies, while it was long term average differences in summer SD across ZIP codes that drove the increased risk. For future climate scenarios, seasonal mean temperatures may in part account for the public health burden, but excess public health risk of climate change may also stem from changes of within season temperature variability.