The suppressive effect of renewables on nuclear energy: implications for OECD countries
The suppressive effect of renewables on nuclear energy: implications for OECD countries
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可再生能源对核能的抑制作用：对经合组织国家的影响
DOI：
10.1007/s10018-019-00258-2
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发表时间：
2020
影响因子：
1.7
通讯作者：
Zijian Wang
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
Masako Ikegami ; Zijian Wang
本文研究了1991-2015年期间可再生能源对15个经合组织国家核能消费的影响。我们发现，可再生能源的份额（在总发电量中）对人均核能消费量和核能份额（在总发电量中）都有负面的长期影响，同时控制人均真实的GDP，电力生产的碳排放比例和能源依赖。通过在误差修正模型中适当考虑横截面依赖性和异质性，我们发现，可再生能源份额增加一个百分点，人均核能消费量减少1.8%，核能份额减少2.7%。两个主要的影响出现。首先，我们的研究结果表明，可再生能源对核能发电的抑制作用，提高了通过可再生能源在经合组织国家的持续渗透来限制核电装机容量的可能性。其次，我们的研究结果表明，在发电中用可再生能源取代核能的能力有限。因此，通过大规模迅速部署可再生能源技术来提高可再生能源的份额，可能不会导致经合组织国家大幅减少对核能依赖的预期结果。
This paper studies the impact of renewables on nuclear energy consumption in 15 OECD countries over the period 1991–2015. We find that the share of renewables (in total electricity production) has negative long-run effects on both nuclear energy consumption per capita and the share of nuclear energy (in total electricity production) while controlling for real GDP per capita, the proportion of carbon emissions from electricity production, and energy dependency. By taking proper account of both cross-section dependence and heterogeneity in the error-correction models, we find that a one percentage point increase in the share of renewables is associated with a 1.8% decrease in nuclear energy consumption per capita and a 2.7% decrease in the share of nuclear energy. Two main implications emerge. First, our results indicate a suppressive effect of renewables on nuclear energy in electric power generation, raising the possibility of restraining installed nuclear capacity through sustained penetration of renewables in OECD countries. Second, our results suggest the limited ability to replace nuclear energy with renewables in electric power generation. As a consequence, raising the share of renewables by rapidly deploying renewable energy technologies on a massive scale may not lead to the intended outcome of greatly reducing the dependence on nuclear energy in OECD countries.