A Novel Modeling Approach for Estimating Patterns of Migration into and out of San Francisco by HIV Status and Race among Men Who Have Sex with Men
A Novel Modeling Approach for Estimating Patterns of Migration into and out of San Francisco by HIV Status and Race among Men Who Have Sex with Men
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DOI：
10.1007/s11524-017-0145-2
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发表时间：
2017-06-01
影响因子：
6.6
通讯作者：
Raymond, H. Fisher
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
Hughes, Alison J.;Chen, Yea-Hung;Raymond, H. Fisher
20世纪80年代初，旧金山弗朗西斯科的男男性行为者（MSM）是最早受到人类免疫缺陷病毒（HIV）流行影响的人群之一，他们继续承受着沉重的HIV负担。艾滋病毒曾经是一种迅速致命的疾病，1996年采用抗逆转录病毒联合疗法后，艾滋病毒感染者的存活率大大提高。因此，艾滋病毒抗体阳性者由于生存时间延长，进出旧金山弗朗西斯科的能力有所提高。虽然有一个高水平的移民之间的一般美国人口和艾滋病毒阳性者在旧金山弗朗西斯科，在和在旧金山弗朗西斯科的男男性接触者的移民模式，据我们所知，从来没有被描述。根据艾滋病毒血清状况了解移徙模式对于确定移徙如何影响艾滋病毒传播动态和艾滋病毒流行率和发病率的估计至关重要。在这篇文章中，我们描述的方法，结果和影响的一种新的方法间接估计的进出迁移模式，因此人口规模，MSM的艾滋病毒血清状态和种族在旧金山弗朗西斯科。研究结果表明，从2006年到2014年，整个MSM人群和所有研究的MSM亚群的规模都有所下降。此外，移徙模式因种族和艾滋病毒血清状况而异。所概述的建模方法可以被其他人应用，以确定移民模式如何影响艾滋病毒阳性人口规模，这些模型的输出可以用于传播模型，以更好地了解移民如何影响艾滋病毒传播。
In the early 1980s, men who have sex with men (MSM) in San Francisco were one of the first populations to be affected by the human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) epidemic, and they continue to bear a heavy HIV burden. Once a rapidly fatal disease, survival with HIV improved drastically following the introduction of combination antiretroviral therapy in 1996. As a result, the ability of HIV-positive persons to move into and out of San Francisco has increased due to lengthened survival. Although there is a high level of migration among the general US population and among HIV-positive persons in San Francisco, in- and out-migration patterns of MSM in San Francisco have, to our knowledge, never been described. Understanding migration patterns by HIV serostatus is crucial in determining how migration could influence both HIV transmission dynamics and estimates of the HIV prevalence and incidence. In this article, we describe methods, results, and implications of a novel approach for indirect estimation of in- and out-migration patterns, and consequently population size, of MSM by HIV serostatus and race in San Francisco. The results suggest that the overall MSM population and all the MSM subpopulations studied decreased in size from 2006 to 2014. Further, there were differences in migration patterns by race and by HIV serostatus. The modeling methods outlined can be applied by others to determine how migration patterns contribute to HIV-positive population size and output from these models can be used in a transmission model to better understand how migration can impact HIV transmission.