Transportation resilience to climate change and extreme weather events - Beyond risk and robustness
Transportation resilience to climate change and extreme weather events - Beyond risk and robustness
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DOI：
10.1016/j.tranpol.2018.11.003
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发表时间：
2019-02-01
期刊：
影响因子：
6.8
通讯作者：
Underwood, B. Shane
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Markolf, Samuel A.;Hoehne, Christopher;Underwood, B. Shane
交通运输系统的长期可靠性和运作将越来越需要考虑气候变化和极端天气事件，并为此做出规划。运输系统在很大程度上是根据历史气候条件设计和运营的，而现在往往超过了历史气候条件。关于如何规划气候变化的新知识在很大程度上包含了基于风险的思维，有利于更稳健的基础设施设计。然而，考虑到气候的不确定性和非平稳性，以及影响交通系统的许多其他驱动因素（例如，资金、快速的技术变革、人口和利用率的变化等）。本文研究了现有的研究和知识的脆弱性的运输系统对气候变化和极端天气事件，并发现有直接和间接的“破坏的途径。“中断的直接途径包括对物理基础设施的突然影响和通过非物理因素（如人类健康，行为和决策）的影响。同样，中断的间接途径来自与其他关键基础设施和社会系统的相互联系。目前，直接途径似乎在脆弱性和风险评估中得到了很大的关注，解决这些破坏途径的主要方法强调在风险分析的指导下加强和加强基础设施（稳健性）。然而，我们的分析表明，间接的破坏途径可能会产生有意义的影响，同时也不太适合基于稳健性的方法。因此，我们认为，灵活性和敏捷性等概念似乎非常适合通过解决通常具有挑战性的间接和非物理中断途径来补充鲁棒性的现状，从而提高运输系统的弹性。
The long-term reliability and functioning of transportation systems will increasingly need to consider and plan for climate change and extreme weather events. Transportation systems have largely been designed and operated for historical climate conditions that are now often exceeded. Emerging knowledge of how to plan for climate change largely embraces risk-based thinking favoring more robust infrastructure designs. However, there remain questions about whether this approach is sufficient given the uncertainty and non-stationarity of the climate, and many other driving factors affecting transportation systems (e.g., funding, rapid technological change, population and utilization shifts, etc.). This paper examines existing research and knowledge related to the vulnerability of the transportation system to climate change and extreme weather events and finds that there are both direct and indirect "pathways of disruption." Direct pathways of disruption consist of both abrupt impacts to physical infrastructure and impacts via non-physical factors such as human health, behavior, and decision making. Similarly, indirect pathways of disruption result from interconnections with other critical infrastructure and social systems. Currently, the direct pathways appear to receive much of the focus in vulnerability and risk assessments, and the predominant approach for addressing these pathways of disruption emphasizes strengthening and armoring infrastructure (robustness) guided by risk analysis. However, our analysis reveals that indirect pathways of disruption can have meaningful impacts, while also being less amenable to robustness-based approaches. As a result, we posit that concepts like flexibility and agility appear to be well suited to complement the status quo of robustness by addressing the indirect and non-physical pathways of disruption that often prove challenging - thereby improving the resilience of transportation systems.