The economic effects of trade policy uncertainty
The economic effects of trade policy uncertainty
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DOI：
10.1016/j.jmoneco.2019.11.002
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发表时间：
2020-01-01
影响因子：
4.1
通讯作者：
Raffo, Andrea
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Caldara, Dario;Iacoviello, Matteo;Raffo, Andrea
本文研究了贸易政策不确定性（TPU）的意外变化对美国经济的影响。TPU的三个措施是使用报纸报道，公司的盈利电话，和关税税率。公司层面和总体宏观经济数据显示，TPU的增加减少了企业投资。实证结果通过一个包含名义刚性和企业出口参与决策的两国一般均衡模型的透镜来解释。有关未来关税上调的消息和不确定性增加，减少了投资和活动。由爱思唯尔公司出版
This paper studies the effects of unexpected changes in trade policy uncertainty (TPU) on the U.S. economy. Three measures of TPU are constructed using newspaper coverage, firms' earnings calls, and tariff rates. Firm-level and aggregate macroeconomic data reveal that increases in TPU reduce business investment. The empirical results are interpreted through the lens of a two-country general equilibrium model with nominal rigidities and firms' export participation decisions. News and increased uncertainty about higher future tariffs reduce investment and activity. Published by Elsevier B.V.