The increasing predictive validity of self-rated health.

The increasing predictive validity of self-rated health.
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DOI:
10.1371/journal.pone.0084933
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发表时间:
2014
期刊:
影响因子:
3.7
通讯作者:
Bacak V
Bacak V
中科院分区:
综合性期刊3区
文献类型:
--
作者:
Schnittker J;Bacak V

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利用1980年至2002年的综合社会调查,一个重复的横断面研究,已链接到国家死亡指数到2008年,这项研究探讨了自我评估的健康和死亡率之间的关系不断变化。研究表明,自我评估的健康状况对死亡率具有特殊的预测有效性,但鉴于看似肤浅的疾病迅速医疗化以及对良好健康的期望越来越高,这种有效性可能正在恶化。然而,目前的研究表明,自评健康的有效性随着时间的推移而增加。与1980年相比,2002年的个人显然更善于评估自己的健康状况,因此,自评健康与死亡率之间的关系在所有自评健康水平上都要强得多。几个潜在的机制,这种增加进行了探讨。更多的学校教育和更多的认知能力增加了自评健康的预测有效性,但这些影响都不能解释自评健康和死亡率之间日益增长的联系。这种关联对于不断变化的死亡原因也是不变的,包括意外死亡的减少,根据定义,意外死亡是个人无法预料的。使用最后两波数据中的数据,我们发现了暗示性证据,表明接触更多的健康信息是驱动力,但我们也表明信息来源非常重要。例如,在那些使用互联网查找健康信息的人中,自测健康与死亡率之间的关系比那些不使用互联网的人要小。
Using the 1980 to 2002 General Social Survey, a repeated cross-sectional study that has been linked to the National Death Index through 2008, this study examines the changing relationship between self-rated health and mortality. Research has established that self-rated health has exceptional predictive validity with respect to mortality, but this validity may be deteriorating in light of the rapid medicalization of seemingly superficial conditions and increasingly high expectations for good health. Yet the current study shows the validity of self-rated health is increasing over time. Individuals are apparently better at assessing their health in 2002 than they were in 1980 and, for this reason, the relationship between self-rated health and mortality is considerably stronger across all levels of self-rated health. Several potential mechanisms for this increase are explored. More schooling and more cognitive ability increase the predictive validity of self-rated health, but neither of these influences explains the growing association between self-rated health and mortality. The association is also invariant to changing causes of death, including a decline in accidental deaths, which are, by definition, unanticipated by the individual. Using data from the final two waves of data, we find suggestive evidence that exposure to more health information is the driving force, but we also show that the source of information is very important. For example, the relationship between self-rated health and mortality is smaller among those who use the internet to find health information than among those who do not.
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