When is migration a maladaptive response to climate change?
When is migration a maladaptive response to climate change?
复制标题
DOI：
10.1007/s10113-018-1387-6
复制
发表时间：
2019-01-01
影响因子：
4.2
通讯作者：
Jarihani, Ben
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Jacobson, Chris;Crevello, Stacy;Jarihani, Ben
气候变化影响到降雨量的变化和粮食安全，在某些情况下导致移徙。在我们能够确定移徙是否是较贫穷国家真正的适应性对策之前，需要更好地了解气候与粮食安全之间的相互作用。如果没有这种理解，就难以制定有效的战略，确保具有气候抗御力的发展。我们对东南亚气候最脆弱的国家柬埔寨西北部三个地点的218个家庭的气候、粮食安全、移民及其后果进行了分析。结果表明，多达45%的家庭发生了移民，其中一半以上与气候有关。移徙造成劳动力短缺和福利问题，但不一定改善粮食安全。这一点和气候趋势使我们认为，从长远来看，移徙可能是不适应的，导致气候引起的贫困陷阱。相反，需要调整生计，以解决㈠年轻男性移徙者造成的社区人口结构变化，㈡移徙季节性，相关的劳动力短缺和性别角色影响，以及㈢粮食不安全的负担。只有这样，我们才能避免不适应气候的移民贫困陷阱。
Climate change affects rainfall variability and food security, in some cases leading to migration. Improved understanding about the interactions between climate and food security is needed before we can determine whether migration is a truly adaptive response in poorer countries. Without this understanding, it is difficult to design effective strategies that ensure climate resilient development. We present an analysis of climate, food security, migration, and its consequences from 218 households in three locations in North-western Cambodia, the most climate vulnerable nation in SE Asia. Results show that migration occurs in up to 45% of households, over half of which is climate-related. Migration causes labour shortages and welfare issues, but does not necessarily improve food security. This and climate trends lead us to argue that migration may be maladaptive over the long term, resulting in a climate-induced poverty trap. Instead, livelihood adaptations are needed that address (i) changing community demographics resulting from young male migrants, (ii) migration seasonality, associated labour shortages and gender role implications, and (iii) the burden of food insecurity. Only then can we avoid the maladaptive climate migration poverty trap.