The development of universal health insurance coverage in Thailand: Challenges of population aging and informal economy.
The development of universal health insurance coverage in Thailand: Challenges of population aging and informal economy.
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DOI：
10.1016/j.socscimed.2015.09.036
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发表时间：
2015-11
影响因子：
5.4
通讯作者：
Minchung Hsu;Xianguo Huang;Somrasri Yupho
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
Minchung Hsu;Xianguo Huang;Somrasri Yupho
本文定量研究了泰国全民健康保险覆盖（UHI）系统的可持续性，同时考虑到该国的人口迅速老龄化和大量的非正规劳动部门。我们研究了人口老龄化和非正规就业的影响，通过三种税收选择为城市居民健康保险提供资金。本文利用现代动态一般均衡框架进行政策实验和福利分析。如果用劳动所得税来支付城市热岛的费用，与2005年的基准经济相比，2050年的人口年龄结构将需要增加11-15%的劳动税。我们还发现，扩大所得税税基的非正规部门可以大大减轻税收负担。根据对各种税收选择的福利比较，劳动所得税是最受欢迎的，因为正规/非正规部门之间的不平等很大。如果非正规部门不能避免劳动所得税，资本税将优先于劳动和消费税。
This paper quantitatively investigates the sustainability of the universal health insurance coverage (UHI) system in Thailand while taking into account the country's rapidly aging population and large informal labor sector. We examine the effects of population aging and informal employment across three tax options for financing the UHI. A modern dynamic general equilibrium framework is utilized to conduct policy experiments and welfare analysis. In the case of labor income tax being used to finance the cost of UHI, an additional 11–15% of labor tax will be required with the 2050 population age structure, compared with the 2005 benchmark economy. We also find that an expansion of income tax base to the informal sector can substantially alleviate the tax burden. Based on welfare comparisons across the alternative tax options, the labor income tax is the most preferred because the inequality between formal/informal sectors is large. If the informal sector cannot avoid labor income tax, capital tax will be preferred over labor and consumption taxes.