Appendix 1: The effects of the oil price shocks on shipbuilding in the 1970s
Appendix 1: The effects of the oil price shocks on shipbuilding in the 1970s
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附录 1：20 世纪 70 年代石油价格冲击对造船业的影响
DOI：
10.5117/9789462981157
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发表时间：
2017
期刊：
影响因子：
--
通讯作者：
Stig Tenold
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
H. Murphy;Stig Tenold
这一小章试图让读者了解两次油价冲击对船舶市场的影响。我们讨论了20世纪70年代和80年代初需求方（航运）和供应方（造船）的变化。然而，这不是一个详尽的解释，而是一个指示性的解释。1950年代和1960年代，寻求规模经济导致船东对越来越大的油轮的需求增加。从1967年起，由于阿拉伯-以色列战争，苏伊士运河关闭，一直到1975年不再使用，这一趋势加速，因为船只现在不得不绕好望角走更远的航线。一些VLCC在完工后立即以高于原合同价格的价格出售，而另一些合同甚至在船舶建造完成之前以高于原合同价格的价格出售。追求规模经济对造船业具有重要意义。在1962年之后的十年里，订购的船只的平均尺寸增加了两倍多。造船厂不得不对此进行调整，但在1973-1974年油价上涨后，发展停滞不前，然后逆转。这无疑是航运和造船业危机的根源之一。图A.1.1显示了1960年代和1970年代前半期订购的油轮平均尺寸的增长情况，以及货运市场崩溃后平均尺寸的急剧缩小。图A.1.1中订单和交货量的驼峰状特征与石油运输需求的发展相呼应，并部分解释了这一点。同样，1960年代的强劲增长之后是停滞，然后是从1970年代后期开始的绝对下降。
This small chapter attempts to give the reader an appreciation of the effects of the two oil price shocks on the market for ships. We address changes both on the demand side (shipping) and the supply side (shipbuilding) in the 1970s and early 1980s. It is not, however, an exhaustive explanation but an indicative one. In the 1950s and 1960s the search for economies of scale led to increased demand by shipowners for larger and larger tankers. From 1967, with the closure of the Suez Canal consequent on the Arab-Israeli war and its continuing non-use to 1975, this trend accelerated, as vessels now had to take the far lengthier route around the Cape of Good Hope.1 A dearth of shipbuilding capacity led to an increase in newbuilding prices, motivating speculative demand. Some VLCCs were sold immediately after they had been completed at a considerable premium to the price originally contracted for, while other contracts were even sold at a prof it before the building of the ship was f inished. The quest for economies of scale had important implications for the shipbuilding industry. The average size of the vessels on order more than trebled in the decade after 1962. Shipyards had to adjust to this, only to see the development stagnate, then reverse, after the 1973-1974 oil price increase. This is undoubtedly one of the roots of the crises in shipping and shipbuilding. Figure A.1.1 shows the growth in the average size of tankers ordered in the 1960s and f irst half of the 1970s, and the drastic reduction in average size after the freight market broke down. The hump-like properties of the orderbook and deliveries in Figure A.1.1 are echoed in – and partly explained by – the development of the demand for oil transport. Again, strong growth in the 1960s was followed by stagnation, then by an absolute decline from the last part of the 1970s onwards.