Managing Hydropower Under Climate Change in the Mekong Tributaries
Managing Hydropower Under Climate Change in the Mekong Tributaries
复制标题
气候变化下湄公河支流水电管理
DOI：
--
复制
发表时间：
2015
期刊：
影响因子：
--
通讯作者：
O. Vonnarart
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
T. Piman;T. Cochrane;M. Arias;N. D. Dat;O. Vonnarart
湄公河流域受到水电开发加速和气候变化极端事件的威胁。跨境Srepok、Sesan和SeKong(3S)盆地贡献了湄公河支流的最大流量，为洞里萨河和湄公河三角洲下游提供关键的生态系统服务，包括沉积物、生物多样性和渔业生产。本研究旨在通过多环流模式(GCM)、水文模拟和水库调度模型来评估气候变化和水电开发情景对3S的水流模式和水电生产的潜在影响。与历史基准条件相比，全面的水电开发和以能源为重点的运营将使流域出口的枯季流量增加96%，雨季流量减少25%。气候变化可能会使旱季流量减少6-24%，但使用不同气候变化情景和GCM对雨季和年度流量的预测相对不确定。3S的能源生产不太可能受到气候驱动的流量变化的实质性影响；只有A2和B2气候变化情景和不同的GCM造成的微小变化。然而，预测的气候变化将导致极端洪水事件的规模和频率发生重大变化，这无疑将影响未来的大坝设计和运行规则。协调3S流域内的水电运营对于最大限度地提高流域内的发展效益和减少地方、国家和跨境层面的负面环境影响至关重要。
The Mekong Basin is threatened by accelerated hydropower development and extreme events from climate change. The transboundary Srepok, Sesan, and Sekong (3S) basins contribute the largest discharge of Mekong River’s tributaries, providing critical ecosystem services to the Tonle Sap and the Mekong delta downstream, including sediments, biodiversity, and fish production. This study aims to assess the potential impact of climate change and hydropower development scenarios on flow patterns and hydropower production in the 3S through multi-general circulation models (GCMs), hydrological simulations, and reservoir operation models. Full hydropower development coupled with energy-focused operations will increase dry season flows by 96 % and reduce wet season flows by 25 % at the basin outlet as compared to historical baseline conditions. Climate change is likely to decrease dry season flows by 6–24 %, but projections of wet season and annual flows using different climate change scenarios and GCMs are relatively uncertain. Energy production in the 3S is not likely to be affected substantially by climate-driven changes in flows; only minor changes resulting from either A2 and B2 climate change scenarios and different GCMs. Predicted climate change, however, will result in significant changes in the magnitude and frequency of extreme flood events, which will undoubtedly impact on future dam design and operation rules. Coordination of hydropower operations within the 3S basin will be critical to maximise development benefits within the basin and reduce negative environmental impacts at the local, national, and transboundary levels.