Evaluating the spatiotemporal dynamics of Pacific saury in the Northwestern Pacific Ocean by using a geostatistical modelling approach
Evaluating the spatiotemporal dynamics of Pacific saury in the Northwestern Pacific Ocean by using a geostatistical modelling approach
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利用地统计模型方法评估西北太平洋秋刀鱼的时空动态
DOI：
10.1016/j.fishres.2020.105821
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发表时间：
2021
影响因子：
2.4
通讯作者：
Park Kyum Joon
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Hsu Jhen;Chang Yi-Jay;Kitakado Toshihide;Kai Mikihiko;Li Bai;Hashimoto Midori;Hsieh Chih-hao;Kulik Vladimir;Park Kyum Joon
秋刀鱼（Cololabis saira）是西北太平洋的重要渔业资源和生态鱼类。一些证据表明，它的分布是受环境的变异性，但相对于其他未建模的时空过程的环境效应的重要性还没有被调查。为此，使用地统计建模方法分析了北太平洋渔业委员会成员的渔业数据，以研究2001-2017年捕鱼季节（5月至12月）西北太平洋秋刀鱼时空分布的年际变化。目的是调查这在多大程度上可归因于当地的变化（例如，海面温度），区域环境变量（例如，南方涛动指数），以及未建模的时空变量（例如，物种间的相互作用）。研究发现，2013年后秋刀鱼的重心明显东移，2017年重心进一步东移，相对丰度降低。我们还发现，无论是一个单一的地方或区域环境变量，也不能解释太平洋秋刀鱼的分布转移。相反，空间分布的变化主要归因于“未建模”的时空变量。我们强调，从数量上了解基本机制是今后工作的一个关键领域。今后，预计环境数据将越来越多。然而，我们警告说，在预测太平洋秋刀鱼分布造成的气候变化或其他环境现象，分析师应首先确定是否假设的驱动变量占历史分布数据的变异性的一个有意义的比例。
Pacific saury (Cololabis saira) is an important fisheries resource and an ecologically important fish in the Northwestern Pacific Ocean. Some evidence indicates that its distribution is affected by the environmental variability, but the relative importance of environmental effects versus those of other unmodelled spatiotemporal processes has not been investigated. For this reason, fisheries data from members of the North Pacific Fisheries Commission, were analyzed using a geostatistical modelling approach to examine interannual variation in the spatiotemporal distribution of Pacific saury in the Northwestern Pacific Ocean during the fishing season (May–December) from 2001–2017. The objectives were to investigate the extent to which this can be attributed to changes in the local (e.g., sea surface temperatures), regional environmental variables (e.g., Southern Oscillation Index), and the unmodelled spatiotemporal variables (e.g., species interaction). We found that the centroid of gravity of Pacific saury had an apparent eastward shifting after 2013, and a further shift with a lower relative abundance in 2017. We also found that neither a single local or regional environmental variable nor any combination of them could explain the distributional shift of Pacific saury. Instead, the change in spatial distribution is mostly attributed to the “unmodelled” spatiotemporal variables. We emphasize that developing a quantitative understanding of the underlying mechanisms is a critical area for future work. In the future, environmental data is expected to become increasingly available. However, we caution that before projecting the Pacific saury distribution resulting from climate change or other environmental phenomena, analysts should first determine whether the hypothesized driving variables account for a meaningful proportion of variability in the historical distribution data.