Probabilistic forecasting of plausible debris flows from Nevado de Colima (Mexico) using data from the Atenquique debris flow, 1955
Probabilistic forecasting of plausible debris flows from Nevado de Colima (Mexico) using data from the Atenquique debris flow, 1955
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DOI：
10.5194/nhess-19-791-2019
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发表时间：
2019-04-17
影响因子：
4.6
通讯作者：
Hyman, David
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Bevilacqua, Andrea;Patra, Abani K.;Hyman, David
我们详细介绍了一种新的面向预测的程序，旨在基于受异构和定义不明确的数据约束的地球物理质量流模型进行火山灾害评估。我们的方法依赖于经验证伪原理在可能输入条件的任意范围内的逐项应用。因此，我们为客观且部分自动化的实验设计构建迈出了第一步。特别是，我们不是根据过去的观察完全校准模型输入，而是创建并探索更一般的一致性要求，然后分别使用每条经验数据来删除那些与其不兼容的输入值。因此，部分解被定义为逆问题。与传统提出的逆问题相比，这具有几个优点：（i）多个可能的正向模型的部分解的潜在非空逆图像表征了逆问题的解； (ii) 部分解决方案可以在较弱的约束下提供危害估计，可能包括对危害分析很重要的极端情况； (iii) 如果适用多个模型，则可以计算针对每条经验信息的具体绩效分数。我们将我们的程序应用于 1955 年发生在 Nevado de Colima 火山（墨西哥）侧面的 Atenquique 火山碎屑流案例研究。我们采用并比较了目前在 TITAN2D 求解器中实现的三个深度平均模型，可从 https://vhub.org 获取（版本 4.0.0 - 最后访问：2016 年 6 月 23 日）。如果以传统方式处理，相关的逆问题并不适定。我们表明，我们的程序可以提取有价值的信息进行危害评估，从而可以探索与过去发生的类似但以合理方式不同的合成流的影响。因此，多个模型的实现是我们方法的一个重要方面，因为它们可以覆盖其他可能的流。我们还观察到模型选择与反演问题有着内在的联系。
We detail a new prediction-oriented procedure aimed at volcanic hazard assessment based on geophysical mass flow models constrained with heterogeneous and poorly defined data. Our method relies on an itemized application of the empirical falsification principle over an arbitrarily wide envelope of possible input conditions. We thus provide a first step towards a objective and partially automated experimental design construction. In particular, instead of fully calibrating model inputs on past observations, we create and explore more general requirements of consistency, and then we separately use each piece of empirical data to remove those input values that are not compatible with it. Hence, partial solutions are defined to the inverse problem. This has several advantages compared to a traditionally posed inverse problem: (i) the potentially nonempty inverse images of partial solutions of multiple possible forward models characterize the solutions to the inverse problem; (ii) the partial solutions can provide hazard estimates under weaker constraints, potentially including extreme cases that are important for hazard analysis; (iii) if multiple models are applicable, specific performance scores against each piece of empirical information can be calculated. We apply our procedure to the case study of the Atenquique volcaniclastic debris flow, which occurred on the flanks of Nevado de Colima volcano (Mexico), 1955. We adopt and compare three depth- averaged models currently implemented in the TITAN2D solver, available from https://vhub.org (Version 4.0.0 - last access: 23 June 2016). The associated inverse problem is not well-posed if approached in a traditional way. We show that our procedure can extract valuable information for hazard assessment, allowing the exploration of the impact of synthetic flows that are similar to those that occurred in the past but different in plausible ways. The implementation of multiple models is thus a crucial aspect of our approach, as they can allow the covering of other plausible flows. We also observe that model selection is inherently linked to the inversion problem.