Changes in start, end, and length of frost-free season across Northeast China
Changes in start, end, and length of frost-free season across Northeast China
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东北地区无霜期起止及时长变化
DOI：
10.1002/joc.5002
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发表时间：
2017
期刊：
影响因子：
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通讯作者：
Zong Shengwei
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
Wang Lei;Wu Zhengfang;He Hongshi;Wang Fuxue;Du Haibo;Zong Shengwei
利用东北地区109个气象站1961 - 2013年的日最低气温资料和CMIP 5中8个模式的输出数据，分析了东北地区无霜期的时空变化特征。结果表明，春季末霜日有明显的减少趋势。负趋势明显的台站主要分布在吉林省东部和黑龙江省中西部。初霜日数和无霜期均呈显著增加趋势。FFFD和LFFS呈显著正趋势的台站空间格局相似，主要分布在内蒙古东部中部和长白山中南部。LFFS有显著的增加趋势，RCP 2的幅度为0.49天/十年。6，RCP 4为1.62天/十年。RCP 8为3.85天/十年。2006年至2100年期间为5。在2071 - 2100年期间，辽宁省南部和东北地区西北部将在每种情景下经历更长的LFFS。无霜期指数与北方极涡面积指数有显著的相关性。春季贝加尔湖地区盛行反气旋环流异常，西北太平洋盛行气旋环流异常，福尔斯南部盛行反气旋环流异常的大气环流形势，阻碍了更多的冷空气流入NEC，导致LSFD提前，FFFD推迟。春季和福尔斯的不利形势分别导致了LSFD的推迟和提前。研究结果对预防和减轻霜冻灾害具有一定的参考价值，并可为今后的作物生产决策提供参考。
On the basis of the daily minimum temperature, records of 109 meteorological stations over Northeastern China (NEC) from 1961 to 2013 and the output data of eight models from CMIP5, this study investigates the recent and future spatiotemporal changes of the frost-free season. The results show that the date of last spring frost (LSFD) has a significant decreasing trend. Stations exhibiting significant negative trends are mostly distributed in the eastern Jilin Province and the Midwest of Heilongjiang Province. The date of first fall frost (FFFD) and length of frost-free season (LFFS) both show significant increasing trends. The spatial patterns of stations showing significant positive trends in the FFFD and LFFS are similar, which are mainly located in the middle part of Eastern Inner Mongolia and the south and middle parts of Changbai Mountains. The LFFSs have significant increasing trends with the magnitudes of 0.49 days/decade for RCP2. 6, 1.62 days/decade for RCP4. 5, and 3.85 days/decade for RCP8. 5 during 2006–2100. The southern Liaoning Province and the northwestern NEC will experience the longer LFFS under each scenario between 2071 and 2100. The frost-free season indices have significant correlations with the Northern Hemisphere Polar Vortex Area index. The atmospheric circulation patterns of an anticyclonic circulation anomaly prevailed over the Lake Baikal region and a cyclonic circulation anomaly located in the northwest Pacific Ocean in springs and an anticyclonic circulation anomaly prevailed over the south part of the Russian Far East in falls block more cold air flowing into NEC, which result in the earlier LSFD and later FFFD. The adverse patterns in springs and in falls could bring out the later LSFD and earlier LSFD, respectively. Our results could benefit the prevention and reduction of frost disaster and provide a reference for the policy-making of future crop production.