Can correlational analyses help determine the drivers of microcystin occurrence in freshwater ecosystems? A meta-analysis of microcystin and associated water quality parameters
Can correlational analyses help determine the drivers of microcystin occurrence in freshwater ecosystems? A meta-analysis of microcystin and associated water quality parameters
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DOI：
10.1007/s10661-022-10114-8
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发表时间：
2022-07-01
影响因子：
3
通讯作者：
Wilson, Alan E.
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Buley, Riley P.;Gladfelter, Matthew F.;Wilson, Alan E.
微囊藻毒素 (MC) 是一种由特定蓝藻产生的有毒次生代谢产物，对多种淡水系统的水生和陆生生物构成威胁。为了评估环境参数与 MC 之间的关系，研究人员经常利用相关分析。这种统计方法在总结复杂的水质监测数据集时已被证明是有用的，但选定参数和 MC 之间的相关性已被证明在不同的研究和系统中存在很大差异。同行评审文献中的这种差异给资源管理者在制定 MC 监控计划时带来了不确定性。本研究的目的是确定环境参数与 MC 之间的相关性分析是否有助于资源管理者了解 MC 的驱动因素。从估计的 2,643 个水体（主要来自北温带地区）中检索环境（即物理、化学和生物）和 MC 相关数据，并使用 Fisher z 荟萃分析进行合成。常见的水质参数如叶绿素、温度、pH等与MC呈正相关，而透明度则呈负相关。有趣的是，15 个研究的氮参数中有 12 个（包括总氮）与 MC 没有显着相关性。相比之下，所研究的四个磷参数中的三个（包括总磷）与 MC 呈正相关。该综合结果定量地增强了常用测量环境参数的有用性，以监测与 MC 发生相关的条件；然而，相关分析本身通常是无效的，除了 MC 产生之外，考虑参数在蓝藻水华生态中发挥的作用也至关重要。
Microcystin (MC) is a toxic secondary metabolite produced by select cyanobacteria that threatens aquatic and terrestrial organisms over a diverse range of freshwater systems. To assess the relationship between environmental parameters and MC, researchers frequently utilize correlational analyses. This statistical methodology has proved useful when summarizing complex water quality monitoring datasets, but the correlations between select parameters and MC have been documented to vary widely across studies and systems. Such variation within the peer-reviewed literature leaves uncertainty for resource managers when developing a MC monitoring program. The objective of this research is to determine if correlational analyses between environmental parameters and MC are helpful to resource managers desiring to understand the drivers of MC. Environmental (i.e., physical, chemical, and biological) and MC correlation data were retrieved from an estimated 2,643 waterbodies (largely from the north temperate region) and synthesized using a Fisher's z meta-analysis. Common water quality parameters, such as chlorophyll, temperature, and pH, were positively correlated with MC, while transparency was negatively correlated. Interestingly, 12 of the 15 studied nitrogen parameters, including total nitrogen, were not significantly correlated with MC. In contrast, three of the four studied phosphorus parameters, including total phosphorus, were positively related to MC. Results from this synthesis quantitatively reinforces the usefulness of commonly measured environmental parameters to monitor for conditions related to MC occurrence; however, correlational analyses by themselves are often ineffective and considering what role a parameter plays in the ecology of cyanobacterial blooms in addition to MC production is vital.