A globally coherent fingerprint of climate change impacts across natural systems
A globally coherent fingerprint of climate change impacts across natural systems
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DOI：
10.1038/nature01286
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发表时间：
2003-01-02
期刊：
影响因子：
64.8
通讯作者：
Yohe, G
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Parmesan, C;Yohe, G
将最近的生物趋势归因于气候变化是复杂的，因为非气候影响主导着局部的、短期的生物变化。气候变化的任何潜在信号都可能通过寻求跨越不同物种和地理区域的系统性趋势的分析来揭示；然而，政府间气候变化专门委员会(IPCC)内部的辩论揭示了对“系统性趋势”的几种定义。在这里，我们探索这些差异，对1700多个物种进行不同的分析，并表明最近的生物趋势与气候变化预测相匹配。全球荟萃分析记录了平均每十年向两极移动6.1公里(或每十年向上移动几米)的显著范围变化，以及春季事件平均每十年提前2.3天。我们定义了由二十世纪气候趋势唯一预测的时间和空间“符号转换”响应的诊断指纹。在适当的长期/大规模/多物种数据集中，发现了279个物种的这种诊断指纹。这套分析产生了“非常高的信心”(根据政府间气候变化专门委员会的规定)，即气候变化已经影响了生命系统。
Causal attribution of recent biological trends to climate change is complicated because non-climatic influences dominate local, short-term biological changes. Any underlying signal from climate change is likely to be revealed by analyses that seek systematic trends across diverse species and geographic regions; however, debates within the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) reveal several definitions of a 'systematic trend'. Here, we explore these differences, apply diverse analyses to more than 1,700 species, and show that recent biological trends match climate change predictions. Global meta-analyses documented significant range shifts averaging 6.1 km per decade towards the poles ( or metres per decade upward), and significant mean advancement of spring events by 2.3 days per decade. We define a diagnostic fingerprint of temporal and spatial 'sign-switching' responses uniquely predicted by twentieth century climate trends. Among appropriate long-term/large-scale/multi-species data sets, this diagnostic fingerprint was found for 279 species. This suite of analyses generates 'very high confidence' (as laid down by the IPCC) that climate change is already affecting living systems.