Rushing to the Polls: The Causes of Premature Postconflict Elections
Rushing to the Polls: The Causes of Premature Postconflict Elections
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匆忙投票：冲突后选举过早的原因
DOI：
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发表时间：
2011
期刊：
影响因子：
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通讯作者：
Jack Snyder
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
Dawn Brancati;Jack Snyder
在冷战后时期，内战越来越有可能随着国际行为体推动早日选举而达成和平解决而结束。然而，在战争结束后不久举行选举，而政治机构仍然薄弱，则更有可能恢复暴力。国际行动者对选举时机和战争风险具有双重影响力，通常会促成不稳定的军事僵局和提前选举，但有时也会通过维持和平、机构建设和权力分享来防止战争重演。在这篇文章中，我们开发和测试的原因，提前选举作为一个积木在评估选举时间的回归战争的更大影响的定量模型。
In the post—cold war period, civil wars are increasingly likely to end with peace settlements brokered by international actors who press for early elections. However, elections held soon after wars end, when political institutions remain weak, are associated with an increased likelihood of a return to violence. International actors have a double-edged influence over election timing and the risk of war, often promoting precarious military stalemates and early elections but sometimes also working to prevent a return to war through peacekeeping, institution building, and powersharing. In this article, we develop and test quantitatively a model of the causes of early elections as a building block in evaluating the larger effect of election timing on the return to war.