RELATIVE CONTRIBUTIONS OF GREENHOUSE GAS EMISSIONS TO GLOBAL WARMING
RELATIVE CONTRIBUTIONS OF GREENHOUSE GAS EMISSIONS TO GLOBAL WARMING
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DOI：
10.1038/344529a0
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发表时间：
1990-04-05
期刊：
影响因子：
64.8
通讯作者：
AHUJA, DR
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
LASHOF, DA;AHUJA, DR
在过去几年中，许多工作人员注意到，大量微量气体浓度的增加对气候的综合影响可以与二氧化碳浓度的增加相媲美，甚至超过二氧化碳浓度的增加。这些微量气体主要是甲烷、一氧化二氮和氯氟化碳，它们的浓度比二氧化碳低2到6个数量级，但它们很重要，因为每分子它们吸收红外辐射的能力比二氧化碳强得多。事实上，最近的一项研究表明，微量气体对1980年至1990年辐射强迫增加的43%负有责任（图1）。需要一个指数来比较各种“温室”气体排放对全球变暖的贡献，以制定具有成本效益的战略来限制这种变暖。在特定时期对额外温室强迫的相对贡献的估计没有充分考虑到重要温室气体在大气停留时间上的差异。在这里，我们扩展了最近关于卤化碳的研究[5,6]，提出了甲烷、一氧化碳、一氧化二氮和氟氯化碳相对于二氧化碳的全球变暖潜力指数。例如，我们发现，每摩尔甲烷的全球变暖潜能值是二氧化碳的3.7倍。在此基础上，二氧化碳排放占当前温室气体排放对全球变暖的贡献的80%，而在20世纪80年代，二氧化碳排放占辐射强迫增加的57%。
IN the past few years, many workers have noted that the combined effect on climate of increases in the concentrations of a large number of trace gases could rival or even exceed that of the increasing concentration of carbon dioxide1–3. These trace gases, principally methane, nitrous oxide and chlorofluorocarbons, are present at concentrations that are two to six orders of magnitude lower than that of carbon dioxide, but are important because, per molecule, they absorb infrared radiation much more strongly than carbon dioxide. Indeed a recent study4shows that trace gases are responsible for 43% of the increase in radiative forcing from 1980 to 1990 (Fig. 1). An index to compare the contribution of various 'greenhouse' gas emissions to global warming is needed to develop cost-effective strategies for limiting this warming. Estimates of relative contributions to additional greenhouse forcing during particular periods do not fully take into account differences in atmospheric residence times among the important greenhouse gases. Here we extend recent work on halocarbons5,6by proposing an index of global warming potential for methane, carbon monoxide, nitrous oxide and CFCs relative to that of carbon dioxide. We find, for example, that methane has, per mole, a global warming potential 3.7 times that of carbon dioxide. On this basis, carbon dioxide emissions account for 80% of the contribution to global warming of current greenhouse gas emissions, as compared with 57% of the increase in radiative forcing for the 1980s.