Empirical determinants of measles metapopulation dynamics in England and Wales
Empirical determinants of measles metapopulation dynamics in England and Wales
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DOI：
10.1098/rspb.1998.0284
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发表时间：
1998-02-07
影响因子：
4.7
通讯作者：
Grenfell, B
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Finkenstädt, B;Grenfell, B
复合种群动态的一个关键问题是内部斑块动态和斑块之间耦合的相对影响。这个问题可以通过分析大型时空数据集、记录集合种群的局部和全局动态来解决。在本文中，我们分析了英格兰和威尔士疫苗接种前时期收集的大型时空病例通知数据集中麻疹混合种群的动态。具体来说，我们使用广义线性统计模型来量化当地影响（出生率和人口规模）和区域耦合对当地流行病动态的相对重要性。除了当地人口规模对病例总数的比例影响外，这些模型还表明了取决于当前流行病状况的当地和区域动态影响模式。出生率和地理耦合与重大流行病的规模无关。相比之下，小型流行病——尤其是感染局部灭绝的发生率——同时受到出生率和地理耦合的影响。滞后四年的出生率提供了最佳拟合，反映了学校群体中易感人群的延迟招募。与大中心的空间耦合的分层索引提供了最佳的空间模型。该模型还表明，与出生率的局部影响相比，这种区域效应对小型流行病和灭绝模式的影响更大。
A key issue in metapopulation dynamics is the relative impact of internal patch dynamics and coupling between patches. This problem can be addressed by analysing large spatiotemporal data sets, recording the local and global dynamics of metapopulations. In this paper, we analyse the dynamics of measles metapopulations in a large spatiotemporal case notification data set, collected during the pre-vaccination era in England and Wales. Specifically, we use generalized linear statistical models to quantify the relative importance of local influences (birth rate and population size) and regional coupling on local epidemic dynamics. Apart from the proportional effect of local population size on case totals, the models indicate patterns of local and regional dynamic influences which depend on the current state of epidemics. Birth rate and geographic coupling are not associated with the size of major epidemics. By contrast, minor epidemics-and especially the incidence of local extinction of infection-are influenced both by birth rate and geographical coupling. Birth rate at a lag of four years provides the best fit, reflecting the delayed recruitment of susceptibles to school cohorts. A hierarchical index of spatial coupling to large centres provides the best spatial model. The model also indicates that minor epidemics and extinction patterns are more strongly influenced by this regional effect than the local impact of birth rate.