Impacts of air temperature and its extremes on human mortality in Shanghai, China
Impacts of air temperature and its extremes on human mortality in Shanghai, China
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DOI：
10.1016/j.uclim.2021.101072
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发表时间：
2022-01-01
期刊：
影响因子：
6.4
通讯作者：
Fu, Chen
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Bi, Xing;Wu, Caiyan;Fu, Chen
全球气候变化增加了气温的可变性，并增加了极端天气事件（如热浪和寒潮）的频率和强度，对公众健康产生不利影响。本研究以2003年为研究对象，分析了上海市日气温与死亡率的关系。我们发现特定原因死亡率和每日气温之间呈v型关系。温度-死亡率关系在3个温度测量指标中均有较好的表现，但不同年龄组和死亡类别的温度阈值不同。2003年发现了两次热浪和一次寒潮，造成了过高的死亡率。与相应的参照期相比，持续19天的第一次热浪对非意外、心血管和呼吸系统死亡总数产生了重大影响。第二次热浪持续14天，造成3类死亡率偏高，但无统计学意义。持续7天的寒潮仅对总非意外死亡率和心血管死亡率有显著影响。我们还发现老年人对温度变化更敏感。我们的研究结果表明，气温是影响人类死亡率的一个重要因素，尤其是对老年人而言。
Global climate change increased air temperature variability and enhanced the frequency and intensity of extreme weather events, such as heat waves and cold spells with adverse impacts on public health. In this study, we examined the relationships of the daily air temperature with mortality in Shanghai in 2003, a record hot year. We found V-shaped associations between causespecific mortality and daily air temperature. The temperature-mortality relationship well manifests in three temperature measures, but with varied temperature thresholds for different age groups and mortality categories. Two heat waves and one cold spell were identified in 2003 and brought out excess mortality. The first heat wave lasting for 19 days had a significant impact on total non-accidental, cardiovascular and respiratory deaths compared to the corresponding reference period. The second heat wave lasting for 14 days have resulted in excess mortality in three categories of mortality but without statistical significance. The cold spell lasting for 7 days only had a significant impact on total non-accidental and cardiovascular mortality. We also found the elderly are more sensitive to temperature variation. Our results suggest that air temperature is a significant factor influencing human mortality, particularly for the elderly.