RETURNS TO RESEARCH-AND-DEVELOPMENT ON NEW DRUG INTRODUCTIONS IN THE 1980S
RETURNS TO RESEARCH-AND-DEVELOPMENT ON NEW DRUG INTRODUCTIONS IN THE 1980S
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DOI：
10.1016/0167-6296(94)90010-8
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发表时间：
1994-12-01
影响因子：
3.5
通讯作者：
VERNON, JM
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
GRABOWSKI, HG;VERNON, JM
研究发现，美国1980-84年的平均内部收益率（IRR）在1980-84年的平均水平上高于美国。S.新药引进率为11.1%，平均净现值为2200万美元。回报的分布是高度倾斜的。结果对基线假设的合理变化具有稳健性。我们的工作也比较了1993年的OTA的研究。尽管假设存在一些重要差异，但这两项研究都暗示，NCE的平均回报率在行业资本成本的一个百分点以内。这比基于会计数据的分析中通常观察到的要少得多。
This study finds that the mean IRR for 1980-84 U. S. new drug introductions is 11.1%, and the mean NPV is 22 million (1990 dollars). The distribution of returns is highly skewed. The results are robust to plausible changes in the baseline assumptions. Our work is also compared with a 1993 study by the OTA. Despite some important differences in assumptions, both studies imply that returns for the average NCE are within one percentage point of the industry's cost of capital. This is much less than what is typically observed in analyses based on accounting data.