What cause the decline of energy intensity in China's cities? A comprehensive panel-data analysis
What cause the decline of energy intensity in China's cities? A comprehensive panel-data analysis
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DOI：
10.1016/j.jclepro.2019.06.075
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发表时间：
2019-06
影响因子：
11.1
通讯作者：
Xiaodan Guo;Bowen Xiao;Lifeng Song
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
Xiaodan Guo;Bowen Xiao;Lifeng Song
中国在能源效率方面的进步为全球能源强度的降低做出了重要贡献，但近年来中国单位GDP能耗的下降速度一直在放缓。本文基于格兰杰因果检验和回归分析，对2005 - 2016年中国289个城市的经济增长核心驱动力进行了研究。为此，本研究采用固定系数和时变系数的面板数据分析方法，以考察影响因素对经济指数的影响及其变化趋势。格兰杰因果检验表明，我国大气污染物排放与能源消费之间存在双向因果关系。但是，由于我国环境规制的薄弱，排放对环境影响的负效应并不显著。此外，回归分析表明，电价上涨一个百分点，从长期来看，EI下降0.722%，但这种调整需要时间。此外，短期关系分析表明，优化能源结构可能是中国短期降低能源消费指数的最佳途径。最后，面板数据模型的时变系数表明，随着用电量的扩大，提高用电量对经济指数的抑制作用将不断增强。
China's progress in energy efficiency has contributed significantly to the reduction in global energy intensity (EI), but the descending speed of per unit GDP energy consumption in China has been decreasing during recent years. The present study aims to investigate the core driving forces of EI from 2005 to 2016 in 289 Chinese cities based on Granger Casualty Test and regression analysis. For this purpose, the study employs panel data analysis with both fixed coefficient and time-varying coefficient which are suitable for examining the effects of influence factors on EI and their change trend. The Granger Casualty Test investigates that there supposed to be a bidirectional causality between air-pollutant emission and energy consumption in China. However, due to China's weak environmental regulations, the negative effect of emission on EI is not significant. Further, regression analysis shows that a percentage increase in electricity price decreases EI by 0.722% in long-term, but this adjustment takes time. Furthermore, analysis of short-term relationship reveals that optimizing energy structure may be the best way for China to reduce EI in short run. Finally, the time-varying coefficients of panel data model indicate that inhibitory effect of promoting electricity consumption on EI will keep improving with expansion of electricity use.