Research on Land Surface Thermal-Hydrologic Exchange in Southern China under Future Climate and Land Cover Scenarios
Research on Land Surface Thermal-Hydrologic Exchange in Southern China under Future Climate and Land Cover Scenarios
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DOI：
10.1155/2013/969145
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发表时间：
2013-11
影响因子：
2.9
通讯作者：
Jianwu Yan;Baozhang Chen;Minquan Feng;J. Innes;Guangyu Wang;S. Fang;Guangkuo Xu;Huifang Zhang;D. Fu;Huimin Wang;Guirui Yu;Xiaomin Sun
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
Jianwu Yan;Baozhang Chen;Minquan Feng;J. Innes;Guangyu Wang;S. Fang;Guangkuo Xu;Huifang Zhang;D. Fu;Huimin Wang;Guirui Yu;Xiaomin Sun
气候变化不可避免地会导致热液循环的变化。然而，由土地覆盖变化引起的热-水文交换也发生了不合格的变化。因此，研究气候和土地覆盖变化对地表水热交换的综合影响，有助于我们更好地了解区域气候的形成机制，预测气候变化的不确定性较小。本文利用一个陆面模式(生态系统-大气模拟方案)研究了中国南部近40年来的陆面热-水文交换。我们的研究结果总结如下。(1)土地覆盖情景(A2a或B2a)和气候变化情景(A1b)的感热通量(H)和蒸散(ET)的时空变化模式是一致的。(2)H和ET均呈单峰型，峰值出现在6、7月份。(3)基于区域年际变率分析，H呈下降趋势(10%)，ET呈上升趋势(15%)。(Iv)当林地转为耕地时，年平均H和ET将分别增加和减少约10%。通过这项研究，我们认识到未来气候变化以及土地覆盖变化对地表水热交换的影响很大。
Climate change inevitably leads to changes in hydrothermal circulation. However, thermal-hydrologic exchanging caused by land cover change has also undergone ineligible changes. Therefore, studying the comprehensive effects of climate and land cover changes on land surface water and heat exchanges enables us to well understand the formation mechanism of regional climate and predict climate change with fewer uncertainties. This study investigated the land surface thermal-hydrologic exchange across southern China for the next 40 years using a land surface model (ecosystem-atmosphere simulation scheme (EASS)). Our findings are summarized as follows. (i) Spatiotemporal variation patterns of sensible heat flux (H) and evapotranspiration (ET) under the land cover scenarios (A2a or B2a) and climate change scenario (A1B) are unanimous. (ii) Both H and ET take on a single peak pattern, and the peak occurs in June or July. (iii) Based on the regional interannual variability analysis, H displays a downward trend (10%) and ET presents an increasing trend (15%). (iv) The annual average H and ET would, respectively, increase and decrease by about 10% when woodland converts to the cultivated land. Through this study, we recognize that land surface water and heat exchanges are affected greatly by the future climate change as well as land cover change.