Improving the accuracy of hurricane wave modeling in Gulf of Mexico with dynamically-coupled SWAN and ADCIRC
Improving the accuracy of hurricane wave modeling in Gulf of Mexico with dynamically-coupled SWAN and ADCIRC
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DOI：
10.1016/j.oceaneng.2023.114044
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发表时间：
2023-04
影响因子：
5
通讯作者：
Linoj Vijayan;W. Huang;Mengdi Ma;E. Ozguven;M. Ghorbanzadeh;Jieya Yang;Zhaoqing Yang
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Linoj Vijayan;W. Huang;Mengdi Ma;E. Ozguven;M. Ghorbanzadeh;Jieya Yang;Zhaoqing Yang
利用动态耦合的SWAN和ADCIRC模型对墨西哥湾飓风和海平面上升引起的极端波浪和风暴潮进行了预报。以5级飓风“迈克尔”为例，对模型的性能进行了评价。模拟波高与观测值进行了比较。结果表明，动态耦合的SWAN-ADCIRC模型大大提高了建模精度。与在飓风着陆点附近观测到的最大波高2.69 m相比，SWAN- adcirc模型的误差为0.04 m，而SWAN单机模拟的误差为0.39 m。在海平面上升0.2m、0.5m、1m和1.5m 4种SLR情景下，研究了海平面上升对飓风波高的影响。结果表明，随着海平面的上升，飓风着陆点附近浅水的浪高呈非线性增加。在飓风着陆点附近的波浪观测站，波高变化与单反的比值增加到117%，组合浪涌变化与单反的比值增加到265%。分析表明，这是由于SLR引起的浅水水深变化比深水水深变化大。
Dynamically-coupled SWAN and ADCIRC models have been applied to enhance the predictions of extreme waves and storm surges induced by hurricanes and sea level rise (SLR) in the Gulf of Mexico. The model performance was evaluated using Hurricane Michael, a Category-5 hurricane, as a case study. Modeled wave heights were compared to the observations. Results indicate that the dynamically-coupled SWAN-ADCIRC models substantially enhance the modeling accuracy. By comparing to the maximum observed 2.69 m of wave height near the hurricane landing site, the error is 0.04 m by the SWAN-ADCIRC models in comparison to the 0.39 m by the SWAN stand-alone simulation. Effects of sea level rise on hurricane wave heights were investigated under four SLR scenarios of 0.2m, 0.5m, 1m, and 1.5m. Results indicate that, as sea level rises, wave heights increase non-linearly in shallow waters near the hurricane landing site. At the wave observation station near the hurricane landing site, the ratio of the wave-height change to SLR increases to 117% and the ratio of the combined wave-surge change to SLR increases to 265%. Analysis indicates that this is due to the substantial percentage changes in water depth occurring in shallow water compared to deep water caused by SLR.