Men's career development and marriage timing during a period of rising inequality
Men's career development and marriage timing during a period of rising inequality
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作者：
Oppenheimer, VK;Kalmijn, M;Lim, N
基于1979-1990年NLSY访谈的数据，我们调查了经济不平等加剧对年轻男性结婚时间的影响。我们的方法是将婚姻的形成与职业进入过程的难易程度联系起来，并表明职业发展中的巨大种族/学校差异导致了婚姻时间的实质性变化。我们制定了衡量当前职业“成熟度”和长期劳动力市场地位的措施。采用离散时间事件历史方法，我们表明这些变量对黑人和白人的婚姻形成都有实质性影响。将我们的回归结果应用到基于观察到的职业发展的种族/学校模式的模型中，然后我们估计了在困难的职业入门过程中结婚与在容易的职业入门过程中结婚的累积比例。我们发现，根据职业转变的困难程度，婚姻形成的速度存在重大差异。我们还发现，这些婚姻时间模式在种族/学校群体之间存在相当大的差异，这与观察到的这些群体之间和内部职业过渡的速度和难度的巨大差异相对应。
Based on data from 1979-1990 NLSY interviews, we investigate the implications of rising economic inequality for young men's marriage timing. Our approach is to relate marriage formation to the ease or difficulty of the career-entry process and to show that large race/schooling differences in career development lead to substantial variations in marriage timing. We develop measures of current career ''maturity'' and of long-term labor-market position. Employing discrete-time event-history methods, we show that these variables have a substantial impact on marriage formation for both blacks and whites. Applying our regression results to models based on observed race/schooling patterns of career development, we then estimate cumulative proportions ever married in a difficult versus an easy career-entry process. We find major differences in the pace of marriage formation, depending on the difficulty of the career transition. We also find considerable differences in these marriage timing patterns across race/schooling groups corresponding to the large observed differences in the speed and difficulty of career transitions between and within these groups.