Mathematical models of contact patterns between age groups for predicting the spread of infectious diseases.
Mathematical models of contact patterns between age groups for predicting the spread of infectious diseases.
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DOI：
10.3934/mbe.2013.10.1475
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发表时间：
2013-10
期刊：
影响因子：
--
通讯作者：
Chitnis N
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Del Valle SY;Hyman JM;Chitnis N
传染病的传播对人群中的接触模式和人们为减少疾病传播而采取的预防措施很敏感。研究了不同的混合假设对年龄结构常微分方程模型中传染病传播的影响。我们考虑了人群中易感性和传染性异质性对疾病传播的影响。我们将分析应用于天花样疾病的传播，推导出繁殖数的公式，并基于此阈值参数，显示控制流行病所需的人类行为变化水平。我们分析了不同的混合模式如何影响疾病的流行，新感染的累积数量，以及最终的流行规模。我们的分析表明，在天花样疾病爆发期间，残留免疫力和行为变化的结合可以在阻止传染病传播方面发挥关键作用;并且必须将现实的混合模式纳入流行病模型，以便预测准确反映现实。
The spread of an infectious disease is sensitive to the contact patterns in the population and to precautions people take to reduce the transmission of the disease. We investigate the impact that different mixing assumptions have on the spread an infectious disease in an age-structured ordinary differential equation model. We consider the impact of heterogeneity in susceptibility and infectivity within the population on the disease transmission. We apply the analysis to the spread of a smallpox-like disease, derive the formula for the reproduction number, , and based on this threshold parameter, show the level of human behavioral change required to control the epidemic. We analyze how different mixing patterns can affect the disease prevalence, the cumulative number of new infections, and the final epidemic size. Our analysis indicates that the combination of residual immunity and behavioral changes during a smallpox-like disease outbreak can play a key role in halting infectious disease spread; and that realistic mixing patterns must be included in the epidemic model for the predictions to accurately reflect reality.
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