Implications of Increasing Household Air Conditioning Use Across the United States Under a Warming Climate
Implications of Increasing Household Air Conditioning Use Across the United States Under a Warming Climate
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DOI：
10.1029/2021ef002434
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发表时间：
2022-01-01
期刊：
影响因子：
8.2
通讯作者：
Kumar, Rohini
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
Obringer, Renee;Nateghi, Roshanak;Kumar, Rohini
随着气温的上升和热浪的频繁出现，空调需求急剧增加，这一趋势可能会持续到未来。然而，在电网的运行和规划中，人为变暖对家用空调的影响在很大程度上未被考虑在内。在这里，通过利用最先进的机器学习和气候模型预测，我们发现，在全球平均温度人为变暖1.5摄氏度（2.0摄氏度）后，美国未来住宅空调需求将大幅增加-高达8%，范围为5%-8.5%（13%，范围为11%-15%）。为了抵消这种由气候引起的需求，空调的效率需要在目前的水平上提高8% (+/- 4.5%)；如果没有这项艰巨的技术努力，我们估计，在气温升高2.0摄氏度的世界里，一些州将面临高达7500万“家庭日”（即平均每个家庭近半个月）的供应不足。在缺乏有效的气候减缓和技术适应战略的情况下，美国将面临空调需求的大幅增长，而在供应不足的情况下，数百万人在极端温度下无法获得空间冷却的风险将增加。气候变化正在导致全球气温升高。随着气温上升，人们为了保持凉爽，对空调的需求也相应增加。虽然预测变化的一般模式是直观的（即，温度升高导致空调使用增加），但家庭将经历的具体变化尚未得到很好的理解。在这里，我们利用机器学习模型来预测美国连续地区家庭空调需求的变化。我们的研究结果表明，在预计的比工业化前高1.5到2.0摄氏度的变暖世界中，空调需求显著增加。特别是，与基线（2005-2019年）相比，预计超过1.5摄氏度阈值后，家庭空调使用将增加8%，超过2.0摄氏度阈值后，家庭空调使用将增加13%。然后，我们讨论了这些预测变化对空调效率可能增加的影响，这将有效地抵消气候引起的增加。如果不考虑这些气候引起的变化，我们发现，在某些州，在气温升高2.0摄氏度的世界里，一个普通家庭在一个特定的夏天可能会面临长达14天没有空调的情况。这将对边缘化社区造成不成比例的影响，这些社区特别容易受到与热有关的灾害和随之而来的健康影响的影响。
Soaring temperatures and increased occurrence of heatwaves have drastically increased airconditioning demand, a trend that will likely continue into the future. Yet, the impact of anthropogenic warming on household air conditioning is largely unaccounted for in the operation and planning of energy grids. Here, by leveraging the state-of-the-art in machine learning and climate model projections, we find substantial increases in future residential air conditioning demand across the U.S.-up to 8% with a range of 5%-8.5% (13% with a range of 11%-15%) after anthropogenic warming of 1.5 degrees C (2.0 degrees C) in global mean temperature. To offset this climate-induced demand, an increase in the efficiency of air conditioners by as much as 8% (+/- 4.5%) compared to current levels is needed; without this daunting technological effort, we estimate that some states will face supply inadequacies of up to 75 million "household-days" (i.e., nearly half a month per average current household) without air conditioning in a 2.0 degrees C warmer world. In the absence of effective climate mitigation and technological adaptation strategies, the U.S. will face substantial increases in air conditioning demand and, in the event of supply inadequacies, there is increased risk of leaving millions without access to space cooling during extreme temperatures.Plain Language Summary Climate change is leading to increased temperatures around the world. As temperatures rise, the demand for air conditioning increases accordingly, as people strive to keep cool. While the general pattern of projected changes is intuitive (i.e., higher temperatures lead to increased air conditioning use), the specific changes that will be experienced by households is not well understood. Here, we utilize a machine learning model to project changes to household-level air conditioning demand over the contiguous United States. Our results show significant increases to air conditioning demand in projected warming world of 1.5 and 2.0 degrees C levels above pre-industrial ones. In particular, households are projected to experience 8% more air conditioning after surpassing the 1.5 degrees C threshold and up to 13% more after the 2.0 degrees C threshold, when compared to the baseline (2005-2019). We then discuss the implications of these projected changes on possible increase in air conditioner efficiency that would effectively counteract climate-induced increases. In the event that these climate-induced changes are not accounted for, we find that, in some states, the average household could face up to 14 days without air conditioning in a given summer in the 2.0 degrees C warmer world. This will disproportionately impact marginalized communities that are especially vulnerable to heat-related disasters and subsequent health impacts.