A nationwide study of factors associated with household car ownership in China
A nationwide study of factors associated with household car ownership in China
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DOI：
10.1016/j.iatssr.2017.10.001
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发表时间：
2017-10
期刊：
影响因子：
3.2
通讯作者：
Scott Le Vine;Chenyang Wu;J. Polak
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Scott Le Vine;Chenyang Wu;J. Polak
中国的汽车保有量增长非常迅速，这反映了经济的持续增长，同时也给中国的交通政策制定者带来了重大挑战。然而，中国机动化的后果也超越了国界，例如对北美和欧洲生产的新汽车的需求增加以及全球大气中温室气体的浓度。中国城市也在尝试创新的交通政策，以管理日益增长的汽车保有量，在许多情况下，这些政策超出了西方传统上考虑的政策选择。尽管出于这些原因政策上的兴趣，中国的机动化进程是知之甚少，部分原因是由于缺乏相关的data.This文件有助于有关这一现象的文献的主体，利用一个独特的数据资源：2011年的中国家庭金融调查波（n= 8438户）。这是一个为监测中国经济状况而开发的全国规模的分类调查数据集，但据作者所知，CHFS以前从未被用于研究汽车拥有模式。我们报告了一组三项分析，以确定与以下因素相关的因素：1）家庭是否拥有至少一辆汽车，2）多辆汽车拥有量，3）家庭是否拥有新车。在其他实证结果中，我们发现，生活在农村地区与汽车拥有量呈负相关，净混杂效应，以及在城镇/城市内，到城镇/城市中心的可达性差（即旅行时间长）也与汽车拥有量呈负相关。这些关于空间效应的研究结果与西方的典型研究结果相反，西方城市中心的汽车拥有率通常最低。该研究的早期版本在2017年交通研究委员会会议上发表。
Car ownership is growing very rapidly in China; whilst this is a reflection of sustained economic growth, it presents a major challenge to Chinese transport policymakers. The consequences of China's motorization also extend beyond the national borders, however, via mechanisms such as increased demand for new automobiles produced in North America and Europe and the global atmospheric concentration of greenhouse gases. Chinese cities are also experimenting with innovative transport policies to manage increasing car ownership, which in a number of cases go beyond the menu of policy options that have traditionally been considered in the West. Despite policy interest for these reasons, China's motorization process is poorly understood, in part due to a scarcity of relevant data.This paper contributes to the body of literature regarding this phenomenon by drawing on a unique data resource: the 2011 wave of the China Household Finance Survey (n= 8438 households). This is a disaggregate national-scale survey dataset developed to monitor economic conditions in China, though to the authors' knowledge the CHFS has not previously been employed to study patterns of car ownership.We report a set of three analyses, to identify factors associated with: 1) whether a household owns at least one car, 2) multiple car ownership, and 3) whether a household owns a new car. Amongst other empirical results, we find that living in a rural area is negatively associated with car ownership, net of confounding effects, and that within towns/cities poor accessibility (i.e. long travel time) to the town/city centre is also negatively associated with car ownership. These findings regarding spatial effects are contrary to typical findings in the West, where car ownership is generally lowest in urban centres.An earlier version of this study was presented at the 2017 Transportation Research Board conference.