MAKING BETTER DECISIONS - CONSTRUCTION OF CLINICAL SCORING SYSTEMS BY THE SPIEGELHALTER-KNILLJONES APPROACH
MAKING BETTER DECISIONS - CONSTRUCTION OF CLINICAL SCORING SYSTEMS BY THE SPIEGELHALTER-KNILLJONES APPROACH
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DOI：
10.1136/bmj.300.6719.223
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发表时间：
1990-01-27
影响因子：
105.7
通讯作者：
VAZ, FG
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
SEYMOUR, DG;GREEN, M;VAZ, FG
开展了一项研究，评估了一种简单的评分信息系统的实际使用情况，该系统可以帮助对个别患者进行诊断或确定预后。该系统于1984年引入，用于胃肠病学，但它可以在广泛的内科和外科环境中使用。本研究旨在预测一组老年外科患者的术后呼吸道并发症。该系统结合了贝叶斯的S定理和Logistic回归的元素，尽管不需要数学知识就可以将其应用于临床实践。结果的给出方法简单易懂，但如果临床医生愿意，也可以接受更复杂的概念，如证据冲突和怀疑。
A study was carried out assessing the practical use of a simple system of scoring information which can help in making a diagnosis or establishing a prognosis in an individual patient. The system was introduced in 1984 for use in gastroenterology, but it can be employed in a wide range of medical and surgical settings. This series was concerned with predicting postoperative respiratory complications in a group of elderly surgical patients. The system combines elements from Bayes''s theorem and logistic regression, though no mathematical knowledge is required to apply it in clinical practice. The method by which results are presented is easy to understand, yet at the same time more complex ideas such as conflict of evidence and doubt may be embraced if the clinician so desires.