Automatic tropical cyclone eye fix using genetic algorithm
Automatic tropical cyclone eye fix using genetic algorithm
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DOI：
10.1016/j.eswa.2006.10.013
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发表时间：
2008
期刊：
影响因子：
--
通讯作者：
K. Wong;Chi Lap Yip;Ping Wah Li
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
K. Wong;Chi Lap Yip;Ping Wah Li
热带气旋（Tropical Cyclones，TC）是一种具有巨大破坏力的天气系统。为了预报TC的路径，预报员需要找到他们的环流中心，或眼睛。这种眼睛定位过程在实践中经常手动完成。由于这一过程涉及主观因素，即使考虑到多种因素，预测者也可能对结果产生分歧。提出了一种利用遗传算法搜索六参数TC模型最优值的客观TC眼定位方法。研究结果表明，相对于最佳航迹数据，该方法在墨卡托投影地图上的经纬度平均误差为0.127°。这与不同TC警报中心的结果的相对误差约为0.3°。该方法在笔记本电脑上实现时，处理6min雷达数据的时间约为10s，满足实际真实的时间要求。它提供了一个实用的，独立的和客观的信息来源，以帮助预报员确定TC眼中心。
Tropical cyclones (TCs) are weather systems with vast destructive power. To forecast TC tracks, forecasters need to locate their circulation centers, or eyes. This eye fix process is often done manually in practice. Since subjective elements are involved in the process, forecasters could disagree on the results even when multiple factors are considered. This paper presents an objective TC eye fix method that utilizes genetic algorithm to search for the optimal values of a six-parameter TC model. The results of this study indicate that the proposed method gives the best average error of 0.127° in latitude/longitude on Mercator projected map with respect to the best track data. This is well within the relative errors of about 0.3° from the results of different TC warning centers. The method can process 6min of radar data in about 10s when implemented on a notebook computer, meeting practical real time constraints. It provides a practical, independent and objective source of information to assist forecasters to fix TC eye centers.