Tracing the origin and history of the HIV-2 epidemic
Tracing the origin and history of the HIV-2 epidemic
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DOI：
10.1073/pnas.0936469100
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发表时间：
2003-05-27
影响因子：
11.1
通讯作者：
Vandamme, AM
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
Lemey, P;Pybus, OG;Vandamme, AM
在这项研究中，我们确定了HIV-2进入人群的时间，并估计了HIV-2亚型A在几内亚比绍（HIV-2的假定地理起源地）的流行史。猴免疫缺陷病毒（mangabey）/HIV-2谱系的进化历史重建通过使用已知采样日期的数据库序列，并通过使用最大似然法计算这一历史的时间尺度。HIV-2亚型A毒株的最近共同祖先的日期估计为1940年16，B毒株的最近共同祖先的日期估计为1945 +/- 14。此外，我们使用合并理论来估计艾滋病毒-2亚型A在几内亚比绍的农村人口的过去的人口动态。参数和非参数估计的有效数量的感染，通过时间获得了相同的样本的gag，pol和env序列。我们对几内亚比绍HIV-2亚型A的流行史的估计显示，在1955-1970年左右，从恒定规模到快速指数增长的过渡。我们的分析提供的证据表明，在20世纪世纪上半叶的人畜共患病转移的HIV-2和流行病的开始，在几内亚比绍，恰逢独立战争（1963-1974年），这表明，战争相关的社会文化模式的变化有重大影响的HIV-2的流行。
in this study we date the introduction of HIV-2 into the human population and estimate the epidemic history of HIV-2 sudbtype A in Guinea-Bissau, the putative geographic origin of HIV-2. The evolutionary history of the simian immunodeficiency virus(sooty) (mangabey)/HIV-2 lineage was reconstructed by using available database sequences with known sampling dates, and a timescale for this history was calculated by using maximum likelihood methods. The date of the most recent common ancestor of HIV-2 subtype A strains was estimated to be 1940 16 and that of B strains was estimated to be 1945 +/- 14. In addition we used coalescent theory to estimate the past population dynamics of HIV-2 subtype A in a rural population of Guinea-Bissau. Parametric and nonparametric estimates of the effective number of infections through time were obtained for an equal sample of gag, pol, and env sequences. Our estimates of the epidemic history of HIV-2 subtype A in Guinea-Bissau show a transition from constant size to rapid exponential growth around 1955-1970. Our analysis provides evidence for a zoonotic transfer of HIV-2 during the first half of the 20th century and an epidemic initiation in Guinea-Bissau that coincides with the independence war (1963-1974), suggesting that war-related changes in sociocultural patterns had a major impact on the HIV-2 epidemic.