The Impact of Modified EU ETS Allocation Principles on the Economics of CHP-Based District Heating Networks
The Impact of Modified EU ETS Allocation Principles on the Economics of CHP-Based District Heating Networks
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DOI：
10.2139/ssrn.1783560
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发表时间：
2011-02
期刊：
影响因子：
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通讯作者：
Günther Westner;R. Madlener
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
Günther Westner;R. Madlener
大规模热电联产（CHP）的区域供热（DH）应用的经济性受到成本和CO2排放配额分配机制的强烈影响。在欧洲排放交易体系（EU ETS）的下一个时期，从2013年开始，热电联产发电的分配规则将根据欧盟指令2009/29/EC公布的原则进行修改。通过贴现现金流模型，我们首先表明，实施修改后的分配机制显着降低了预期的净现值的大型热电联产厂DH。在下一步中，通过应用基于价差的真实的期权模型，我们分析了投资者谁打算投资于热电联产发电的决策问题。我们的研究结果提供了一些证据表明，修改后的欧盟排放交易体系的原则有助于降低投资的吸引力，在能源效率高的大型热电联产工厂，饲料到DH网络。相比之下，不受欧盟排放交易计划约束的分散式小规模热电联产可能受益于这一发展，因此可能越来越多地取代大规模热电联产资产。换句话说，欧洲立法间接促进了分散式热电联产发电机组的进一步推广。
The economics of large-scale combined heat and power (CHP) generation for district heating (DH) applications are strongly affected by the costs and allocation mechanism of CO2 emission allowances. In the next period of the European emission trading system (EU ETS), from 2013 onwards, the allocation rules for CHP generation will be modified according to the principles announced in EU Directive 2009/29/EC. By means of a discounted cash-flow model we first show that the implementation of the modified allocation mechanism significantly reduces the expected net present value of large-scale CHP plants for DH. In a next step, by applying a spread-based real options model we analyze the decision-making problem of an investor who intends to invest in CHP generation. Our results provide some evidence that the modified EU ETS principles contribute to reducing the attractiveness of investments in energy-efficient large-scale CHP plants that feed into DH networks. In contrast, decentralized small-scale CHP, which is not subject to the EU ETS, may benefit from this development and could, therefore increasingly replace large-scale CHP assets. In other words, European legislation is indirectly promoting the further diffusion of decentralized CHP generation units.