Diagnosis of COVID-19 impact on the construction employment: Decline and recovery
Diagnosis of COVID-19 impact on the construction employment: Decline and recovery
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DOI：
10.1016/j.ijdrr.2023.104103
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发表时间：
2023-11
影响因子：
5
通讯作者：
Anil Baral;Abdullah Alnuaimi;Yunping Liang;B. Ashuri;M. Shahandashti
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
Anil Baral;Abdullah Alnuaimi;Yunping Liang;B. Ashuri;M. Shahandashti
2019冠状病毒病（COVID-19）对美国建筑业就业产生了前所未有的影响。对不同建筑行业的就业下降和复苏、劳动力人口统计和地理区域的评估有助于制定包容性的长期计划，以克服自然灾害（如COVID-19疫情）的挫折。现有的方法来量化就业下降的突然冲击不考虑的趋势和季节性的建筑就业在正常条件下。因此，不清楚就业下降是由于灾害的影响还是与就业趋势和季节性模式有关。本研究的目的是开发一种基于时间序列模型的方法，即，季节性自回归综合移动平均（SARIMA）模型和累积和（CANUUM）控制图，以统计方式量化COVID-19大流行对建筑业就业的影响。季节性ARIMA模型使用2011年1月至2019年12月疫情前的就业数据建立，并预测2020年1月至2021年8月期间正常情况下的就业估计。然后，使用CANUUM控制图来检测不同建筑业就业的就业下降和恢复时间框架。结果显示，所有建筑行业都出现了下滑，女性和西班牙裔工人的复苏速度更快，住宅建筑工作岗位率先反弹。截至2021年8月，14个州恢复了建筑业就业，但36个州落后。预计建筑劳动力决策者可以从这项研究中受益，通过提高他们对就业下降和行业部门，性别，种族和地理区域的复苏状况的理解。
The Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) had an unprecedented impact on U.S. construction employment. The assessment of employment declines and recoveries across various construction sectors, workforce demographics, and geographic regions helps develop inclusive long-term plans to overcome the setbacks of natural hazards, such as the COVID-19 pandemic. Existing methods for quantifying the employment decline from sudden shocks do not consider trends and seasonality of construction employment under normal conditions. Hence, it is not clear whether the employment declines are due to the impact of a disaster or associated with trends and seasonal patterns of employment. The objective of this research is to develop an approach based on time series models, i.e., seasonal autoregressive integrated moving average (SARIMA) models, and cumulative sum (CUSUM) control charts to statistically quantify the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on construction employment. Seasonal ARIMA models are developed using the pre-pandemic employment data from January 2011 to December 2019, and employment estimates under normal conditions are projected for the period from January 2020 to August 2021. CUSUM control charts are then used to detect employment declines and recovery timeframes for different construction employment. Results show declines in all construction sectors, faster recovery for women and Hispanic workers, and residential building jobs rebounding first. By August 2021, 14 states recovered construction employment, but 36 states lagged. It is anticipated that construction workforce decision-makers can benefit from this study by enhancing their understanding of the employment declines and the recovery status across industry sectors, gender, race, and geographical regions.