The UK solar energy resource and the impact of climate change
The UK solar energy resource and the impact of climate change
复制标题
DOI：
10.1016/j.renene.2014.05.034
复制
发表时间：
2014-11-01
期刊：
影响因子：
8.7
通讯作者：
Harrison, Gareth P.
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Burnett, Dougal;Barbour, Edward;Harrison, Gareth P.
英国太阳能的使用正在急剧增加，既提供热能又发电。由于太阳能技术变得更便宜、更容易获得，以及支持太阳能部署的可再生热能激励（RHI）和上网电价补贴（FiT）等低碳政府立法，预计这一趋势将持续下去。然而，气候变化对太阳能资源的影响在很大程度上仍未得到研究。气候变化影响云量特征，从而直接影响太阳能技术的性能。本文研究了英国当前和未来气候的太阳辐射资源。通过30年观测的历史月平均日照时数数据的转换来评估当前的太阳辐射水平。通过将转换后的太阳辐照水平与具有重要太阳辐照度数据历史记录的气象站的实际太阳辐照度测量值进行比较来验证该方法和结果。利用UKCP09概率气候变化预测研究了英国不同地区气候变化的影响。我们发现目前英国年平均太阳能资源为101.2 Wm(-2)，范围从英格兰南部的128.4 Wm(-2)到71.8 Wm(-2) 位于苏格兰西北部。气候变化似乎可能会增加英国南部的平均资源，而西北地区的平均资源则略有减少。总体影响是英国太阳能资源的平均增加，但季节性变化更大，地理区域之间的差异也将加剧。 (C) 2014 年作者。由 Elsevier Ltd 出版。这是一篇基于 CC BY 许可证 (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/3.0/) 的开放获取文章。
Solar energy use in the UK is increasing dramatically, providing both heat energy and generation of electricity. This trend is expected to continue due to solar technologies becoming cheaper and more readily available along with low carbon government legislation such as the Renewable Heat Incentive (RHI) and Feed in Tariffs (FiTs) supporting solar energy deployment. However, the effects of climate change on the solar resource remain largely unstudied. Climate change affects cloud cover characteristics and consequently directly affects the performance of solar energy technologies.This paper investigates the UK solar irradiation resource for both the present and future climates.The present solar irradiation level was assessed through the conversion of 30 years of observed historical monthly average sunshine duration data. The method and results are validated by comparing the converted solar irradiation levels to actual solar irradiance measurements at weather stations with significant historical records of solar irradiance data.The impact of climate change is investigated across different regions of the UK by using the UKCP09 probabilistic climate change projections.We find that the current average UK annual solar resource is 101.2 Wm(-2), ranging from 128.4 Wm(-2) in the south of England to 71.8 Wm(-2) in the northwest of Scotland. It seems likely that climate change will increase the average resource in the south of the UK, while marginally decreasing it in the Northwest. The overall effect is a mean increase of the UK solar resource, however it will have greater seasonal variability and discrepancies between geographical regions will be reinforced. (C) 2014 The Authors. Published by Elsevier Ltd. This is an open access article under the CC BY license (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/3.0/).