Monitoring the Paraguayan epidemiological dengue surveillance system (2009-2011) using Benford's law
Monitoring the Paraguayan epidemiological dengue surveillance system (2009-2011) using Benford's law
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DOI：
10.7705/biomedica.v36i4.2731
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发表时间：
2016-12-01
期刊：
影响因子：
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通讯作者：
Achkar, Marcel
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
Gómez-Camponovo, Mariana;Moreno, José;Achkar, Marcel
简介：登革热是世界上传播最广泛的虫媒病毒。目的：评价19881989-2011年巴拉圭登革热流行病学监测系统的运行情况。材料与方法：利用二次流行病学监测数据进行生态学研究。我们根据本福德定律预期的分布分析了通报的病例。为此，我们使用了全球记录中的第一位和第二位数字，按地区、季节、人口密度、住房条件指标和牛头进行分层。结果：流行病学监测系统在非流行时期和住房条件较好、牛头较少的州表现较好。结论：鉴于表现存在差异，我们建议即使在预计病例较少的时期，该系统仍保持相同的高警戒水平。所提出的监测案件通报的方法所使用的技术很容易传递给业务人员。
Introduction: Dengue is the most widespread arbovirus worldwide. In Paraguay, it reappeared in 19881989, with one of the largest epidemic outbreaks occurring in 2011.Objective: To evaluate the performance of the dengue epidemiological surveillance system in Paraguay between 2009 and 2011.Materials and methods: We conducted an ecological study with secondary epidemiological surveillance data. We analyzed notified cases of the disease based on the distribution expected by Benford's law. To this end, we used the first and second digits from the global records stratified by region, season, population density, indicators of housing conditions and heads of cattle.Results: The epidemiological surveillance system performed better during non-epidemic periods and in the states with better housing conditions and fewer heads of cattle.Conclusion: Given that a difference in the performance existed, we recommended that the system remains operating at the same high alert level even during periods when fewer cases are expected. The technology used by the method proposed to monitor the notification of cases is easy to transfer to operational staff.