When Do Diplomatic Protests Boomerang? Foreign Protests against U.S. Arms Sales and Domestic Public Support in Taiwan
When Do Diplomatic Protests Boomerang? Foreign Protests against U.S. Arms Sales and Domestic Public Support in Taiwan
复制标题
外交抗议何时会回旋镖？
DOI：
10.1093/isq/sqac043
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发表时间：
2022
影响因子：
2.6
通讯作者：
Koji Kagotani and Wen-Chin Wu
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Morita Tadashi;Sawada Yukiko;Yamamoto Kazuhiro;山本和博;Kazuhiro Yamamoto;山本和博;安達智史;安達智史;安達智史;安達智史;Koji Kagotani and Wen-Chin Wu
外交抗议表达了一国政府对另一国政府政策的不满。然而，公众对本国政府政策的支持可能会受到其他国家行为的影响，因此外交抗议有可能增加目标国家国内对政策的支持。人们发现，“围旗集结效应”与战争、危机和制裁有关。在这里，我们评估了外国政府的外交抗议是否存在这种影响。通过一项调查实验，我们评估了外国政府抗议——特别是中国抗议——反对美国对台军售对台湾政府及其政策的公众支持的影响。我们发现谁提出抗议，无论是对手还是支持者，比抗议的语言本身更重要。我们认为，外交抗议造成了一个困境——对其他政府的行为提出投诉可以增加目标国家公众对这些政策的支持。
Diplomatic protests convey one government's displeasure with the policies of another government. Yet, public support for their own government's policies can be influenced by the actions of others, so diplomatic protests have the potential to increase domestic support for the policy within the target country. A rally-’round-the-flag effect has been found to be associated with wars, crises, and sanctions. Here, we assess the existence of such an effect in relation to diplomatic protests by foreign governments. Using a survey experiment, we assess the impact of foreign government protests—specifically protests by China—against US arms sales to Taiwan on public support for Taiwan's government and its policies. We find that who lodges the protest, whether it is an adversary or a supporter, is more important than the language of the protest itself. We argue that diplomatic protests create a dilemma—lodging complaints about the behavior of other governments can increase public support for those very policies in the target country.