North Atlantic Power Dissipation Index (PDI) and Accumulated Cyclone Energy (ACE): Statistical Modeling and Sensitivity to Sea Surface Temperature Changes
North Atlantic Power Dissipation Index (PDI) and Accumulated Cyclone Energy (ACE): Statistical Modeling and Sensitivity to Sea Surface Temperature Changes
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DOI：
10.1175/jcli-d-11-00146.1
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发表时间：
2012-01
影响因子：
4.9
通讯作者：
G. Villarini;G. Vecchi
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
G. Villarini;G. Vecchi
AbstractThis study focused on the statistical modeling of the power dissipation index（PDI）and accumulated cyclone energy（ACE）for the North Atlantic basin over the period 1949-2008，which are metrics regularly used to assess tropical storm activity，and their sensitivity to sea surface temperature（SST）changes.为了描述数据所表现出的变异性，考虑了四种不同的统计分布（伽马，Gumbel，对数正态分布和Weibull分布），热带大西洋和热带平均SST被用作预测因子。模型选择，无论是在显着的协变量和它们的函数关系的统计分布的参数，使用两个惩罚标准。利用两个不同的SST数据集[英国气象局的全球海冰和海表温度数据集（HadISSTv 1）和NOAA的扩展重建SST数据集（ERSSTv 3b）]来检验结果对输入数据的敏感性。
AbstractThis study focuses on the statistical modeling of the power dissipation index (PDI) and accumulated cyclone energy (ACE) for the North Atlantic basin over the period 1949–2008, which are metrics routinely used to assess tropical storm activity, and their sensitivity to sea surface temperature (SST) changes. To describe the variability exhibited by the data, four different statistical distributions are considered (gamma, Gumbel, lognormal, and Weibull), and tropical Atlantic and tropical mean SSTs are used as predictors. Model selection, both in terms of significant covariates and their functional relation to the parameters of the statistical distribution, is performed using two penalty criteria. Two different SST datasets are considered [the Met Office’s Global Sea Ice and Sea Surface Temperature dataset (HadISSTv1) and NOAA’s extended reconstructed SST dataset (ERSSTv3b)] to examine the sensitivity of the results to the input data.The statistical models presented in this study are able to well de...