Attribution of polar warming to human influence
Attribution of polar warming to human influence
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DOI：
10.1038/ngeo338
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发表时间：
2008-11-01
影响因子：
18.3
通讯作者：
Jones, Philip D.
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
Gillett, Nathan P.;Stone, Daithi A.;Jones, Philip D.
长期以来，人们一直认为由于人为气候变化，极地地区将强烈变暖，因为与冰雪融化相关的正反馈（1，2）。几项研究指出，近几十年来北极气温上升（2-4），但由于观测稀少和自然变异大，没有正式将变化归因于人类影响（5，6）。南极洲（7）观察到了变暖和变冷的趋势，政府间气候变化专门委员会第四次评估报告得出结论，南极洲是迄今为止唯一尚未检测到人为温度变化的大陆，这可能是由于观测覆盖范围不足（8）。在这里，我们使用最新的陆地表面温度网格数据集（9，10）和四个耦合气候模型的模拟来评估观测到的极地温度变化的原因。我们发现，观测到的北极和南极温度变化与内部气候变率或自然气候驱动因素本身并不一致，而是直接归因于人类的影响。我们的研究结果表明，人类活动已经在两个极地地区造成了显着的变暖，可能会对极地生物，土著社区（2），冰盖质量平衡和全球海平面（11）产生影响。
The polar regions have long been expected to warm strongly as a result of anthropogenic climate change, because of the positive feedbacks associated with melting ice and snow(1,2). Several studies have noted a rise in Arctic temperatures over recent decades(2-4), but have not formally attributed the changes to human influence, owing to sparse observations and large natural variability(5,6). Both warming and cooling trends have been observed in Antarctica(7), which the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Fourth Assessment Report concludes is the only continent where anthropogenic temperature changes have not been detected so far, possibly as a result of insufficient observational coverage(8). Here we use an up-to-date gridded data set of land surface temperatures(9,10) and simulations from four coupled climate models to assess the causes of the observed polar temperature changes. We find that the observed changes in Arctic and Antarctic temperatures are not consistent with internal climate variability or natural climate drivers alone, and are directly attributable to human influence. Our results demonstrate that human activities have already caused significant warming in both polar regions, with likely impacts on polar biology, indigenous communities(2), ice-sheet mass balance and global sea level(11).