Impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on pregnancy postponement - evidence from Japan
Impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on pregnancy postponement - evidence from Japan
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DOI：
10.1017/s0021932022000451
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发表时间：
2023-01-11
影响因子：
1.5
通讯作者：
Tabuchi, Takahiro
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
Matsushima, Midori;Yamada, Hiroyuki;Tabuchi, Takahiro
自2019冠状病毒病（COVID-19）大流行以来，日本面临生育率下降的问题。这项研究旨在调查推迟怀孕的比例及其影响因素，特别关注经济和COVID-19感染相关指标。这项研究使用了768名年龄在18岁至50岁之间有怀孕意图的已婚妇女的观察数据。数据来自日本COVID-19和社会互联网调查（JACSIS）于2020年和2021年进行的两轮大型网络调查。一个广义估计方程（GEE）模型，以及泊松回归模型的子样本分析除以年估计的贡献因素的影响的年差幅度。约20%有生育意愿的已婚妇女推迟生育。分析显示，收入下降和对未来家庭财务状况的焦虑与推迟生育有显著相关，而对COVID-19的恐惧和感染率则没有相关性。此外，不利经济状况的不利影响于二零二一年更为严重。值得注意的是，年龄并不影响推迟怀孕的决定。老年妇女和年轻妇女一样推迟怀孕。总之，这项研究证实，COVID-19大流行，特别是其相关的不利经济状况，导致了日本目前的婴儿潮。考虑到高龄产妇在日本已经很普遍，生育率下降可能会导致人口进一步下降的长期负面后果。
Japan has faced a decline in fertility since the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic. This study aimed to investigate the rate of pregnancy postponement and its contributing factors, with a particular focus on economic- and COVID-19 infection-related indicators. This study used data from 768 observations of married women aged 18 to 50 years with pregnancy intentions. The data were obtained from two rounds of a large web-based survey conducted by the Japan COVID-19 and Society Internet Survey (JACSIS) in 2020 and 2021. A generalised estimating equation (GEE) model was employed, as well as Poisson regression models for sub-sample analysis divided by year to estimate the year differential magnitude of the contributing factors' impacts. Approximately 20% of married women with childbearing intentions postponed their childbearing. The analyses revealed that declining income and anxiety about future household finances were significantly related to delayed childbearing, while fear of COVID-19 and infection rate were not. Additionally, the adverse effects of unfavourable economic conditions were stronger in 2021. Notably, age did not influence the decision of pregnancy postponement. Older women postponed pregnancy just as much as younger women. In conclusion, this study confirmed that the COVID-19 pandemic, particularly its related adverse economic conditions, contributed to Japan's current baby bust. Considering that advanced maternal age is already common in Japan, this decreased fertility may result in the long-term negative consequence of further population decline.