From global to regional and back again: common climate stressors of marine ecosystems relevant for adaptation across five ocean warming hotspots.
From global to regional and back again: common climate stressors of marine ecosystems relevant for adaptation across five ocean warming hotspots.
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DOI：
10.1111/gcb.13247
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发表时间：
2016-06
影响因子：
11.6
通讯作者：
Roberts MJ
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Popova E;Yool A;Byfield V;Cochrane K;Coward AC;Salim SS;Gasalla MA;Henson SA;Hobday AJ;Pecl GT;Sauer WH;Roberts MJ
海洋变暖“热点”是指近年来气温升高高于平均水平的地区，这对海洋生物资源和依赖它们的社会都会产生重大影响。因此，它们代表了了解海洋气候变化影响的早期预警系统，以及开发应对这些影响的适应方案的试验台。在这里，我们研究了澳大利亚东部、南非、马达加斯加、印度和巴西沿海的五个热点地区。这些特殊的热点支撑了一个大型的国际伙伴关系，该伙伴关系正在通过提供和共享知识来描述、评估和预测沿海海洋食物资源可能的未来，从而努力改善社区适应。为了为这项工作提供信息，我们采用了由代表性浓度路径 8.5 驱动的高分辨率全球海洋模型，并模拟了 2099 年。除了海面温度之外，我们还分析了预计的分层、营养物供应、初级生产、人为 CO 2 驱动的海洋酸化、脱氧和海洋环流。我们的模拟发现，这里研究的温度定义热点将继续经历变暖，但除澳大利亚东部外，下个世纪可能不会仍然是变暖最快的海洋区域，因为预计最强烈的变暖将发生在北半球的副极地和极地地区。此外，我们发现最近海表温度的快速变化并不一定表明这些地区也是所研究的其他气候压力源的热点地区。然而，这里研究的热点的一个一致的方面是它们都受到海洋环流的强烈影响，海洋环流在最近的过去已经显示出变化，并且预计在未来将发生进一步的强烈变化。除了快速变暖之外，当地海洋环流的变化也是当前和未来气候变化影响这些地区海洋生态系统的一个显着特征。
Ocean warming ‘hotspots’ are regions characterized by above‐average temperature increases over recent years, for which there are significant consequences for both living marine resources and the societies that depend on them. As such, they represent early warning systems for understanding the impacts of marine climate change, and test‐beds for developing adaptation options for coping with those impacts. Here, we examine five hotspots off the coasts of eastern Australia, South Africa, Madagascar, India and Brazil. These particular hotspots have underpinned a large international partnership that is working towards improving community adaptation by characterizing, assessing and projecting the likely future of coastal‐marine food resources through the provision and sharing of knowledge. To inform this effort, we employ a high‐resolution global ocean model forced by Representative Concentration Pathway 8.5 and simulated to year 2099. In addition to the sea surface temperature, we analyse projected stratification, nutrient supply, primary production, anthropogenic CO 2‐driven ocean acidification, deoxygenation and ocean circulation. Our simulation finds that the temperature‐defined hotspots studied here will continue to experience warming but, with the exception of eastern Australia, may not remain the fastest warming ocean areas over the next century as the strongest warming is projected to occur in the subpolar and polar areas of the Northern Hemisphere. Additionally, we find that recent rapid change in SST is not necessarily an indicator that these areas are also hotspots of the other climatic stressors examined. However, a consistent facet of the hotspots studied here is that they are all strongly influenced by ocean circulation, which has already shown changes in the recent past and is projected to undergo further strong change into the future. In addition to the fast warming, change in local ocean circulation represents a distinct feature of present and future climate change impacting marine ecosystems in these areas.