Incorporating a Measure of Uncertainty into Systems of Systems Development Performance Measures
Incorporating a Measure of Uncertainty into Systems of Systems Development Performance Measures
复制标题
将不确定性度量纳入系统开发绩效度量系统中
作者：
Richard Volkert;J. Stracener;Junfang Yu
技术性能度量（TPM）历来用于帮助项目经理预测项目是否在实现所需性能的道路上。当在开发时间轴上扩展时，TPM提供了预测预期运行性能的确定性方法。然而，TPM是很难得到一个复杂的公认的系统（SoS）。已经开发了一种SoS性能测量（SPM），其目的与TPM等同，并证明了与TPM使用类似的确定性状态。然而，现实表明，许多组成要素的变量有显着的不确定性与他们在SoS的发展。因此，为了更准确地说明SoS实现其预期性能的能力，需要说明这种可变性。本文将确定性SPM的概念扩展到随机SPM来解释这种不确定性。一个反潜战（ASW）的使命的例子，并演示了如何提高SPM方法的有效性，这种扩展。
Technical Performance Measures (TPMs) historically are used to help the Program Manager in predicting if a program is on a path to achieve required performance. When extended over a developmental timeline, TPMs have provided a deterministic approach for predicting expected operational performance. However, TPMs are difficult to derive for a complex acknowledged system of systems (SoS). An SoS Performance Measure (SPM) has been developed that is equivalent in purpose to TPMs and demonstrated for a deterministic state similar to TPM usage. However, reality indicates that many of the SoS component variables have significant uncertainty associated with them during the SoS development. Therefore, to more accurately account for the ability of an SoS to achieve its desired performance, this variability needs to be accounted for. This paper extends the deterministic SPM concept to a stochastic SPM to account for this uncertainty. An Antisubmarine Warfare (ASW) mission example is used, and demonstrates how this extension improves the effectiveness of the SPM methodology.