Quantifying the Decline in Juvenile Sexual Recidivism Rates
Quantifying the Decline in Juvenile Sexual Recidivism Rates
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DOI：
10.1037/law0000094
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发表时间：
2016-11-01
影响因子：
2
通讯作者：
Caldwell, Michael F.
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
Caldwell, Michael F.
来自多个来源的数据表明，近几十年来，总体暴力（联邦调查局，2012;Finkelhor & Jones, 2004; Sickmund, & Puzzanchera, 2014）和成年罪犯的性累犯（Duwe, 2014; Helmus, 2009; Wisconsin Department of Corrections, 2015）已大幅下降。这一发现意义重大，因为旨在减少社会性暴力的公共政策的潜在有效性部分取决于已判决的暴力罪犯的再犯罪率。这项研究调查了近几十年来，青少年性犯罪的累犯率是否也经历了类似的下降。我们检查了98份报告或数据集中的106项研究，这些报告或数据集涉及1938年至2014年间进行的33,783起已判决的少年性犯罪者案件。结果：在58.98个月的随访中，加权平均性累犯率为4.92% （SD = 50.97，中位数= 52.75）。在控制随访时间后，研究开始的年份可以预测性再犯率（F = 14.72, p = 0.0002）。2000年至2015年间进行的研究报告称，加权平均性累犯率为2.75%；比1980年至1995年间进行的研究报告的10.30%低73%。讨论了对公共政策、风险评估方法和临床服务的影响。
Data from several sources have indicated that violence in general (Federal Bureau of Investigation, 2012; Finkelhor & Jones, 2004; Sickmund, & Puzzanchera, 2014), and sexual recidivism in adult offenders (Duwe, 2014; Helmus, 2009; Wisconsin Department of Corrections, 2015), has declined substantially in recent decades. This finding is significant because the potential effectiveness of public policies intended to reduce sexual violence in society rests in part on the base rate for re-offense of adjudicated violent offenders. This study examined whether the recidivism base rate for juvenile sexual recidivism has undergone a similar decline in recent decades. We examined 106 studies from 98 reports or data sets involving 33,783 cases of adjudicated juvenile sexual offenders that were carried out between 1938 and 2014. Results showed a weighted mean base rate for sexual recidivism of 4.92% over a mean follow-up time of 58.98 months (SD = 50.97, Median = 52.75). The year of initiation of the study predicted the sexual recidivism rate after controlling for the follow-up time (Delta F = 14.72, p = .0002). Studies conducted between 2000 and 2015 reported a weighted mean sexual recidivism rate of 2.75%; 73% lower than the rate of 10.30% reported by studies conducted between 1980 and 1995. The implications for public policies, risk assessment methods, and clinical services are discussed.