Are the 19761985 birth cohorts heavier drinkers? Age-period-cohort analyses of the National Alcohol Surveys 19792010
Are the 19761985 birth cohorts heavier drinkers? Age-period-cohort analyses of the National Alcohol Surveys 19792010
复制标题
DOI：
10.1111/j.1360-0443.2012.04055.x
复制
发表时间：
2013-06-01
期刊：
影响因子：
6
通讯作者：
Rehm, Juergen
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Kerr, William C.;Greenfield, Thomas K.;Rehm, Juergen
目的估计年龄-时期-队列模型预测酒精量，大量饮酒和饮料特定的酒精量，以评估是否1976 - 1985年出生的队列饮酒相对严重。设计1979年至2010年期间在美国进行的七项横断面调查的数据用于预测酒精测量的年龄，时期和队列效应的负二项广义线性模型。设置美国人口普查。研究对象：36432名美国成年人（18岁或以上）。过去一年中，酒精饮料、啤酒、葡萄酒和烈酒饮料的每月数量，以及饮用五种或五种以上饮料的天数，来自特定饮料的分级频率问题。结果相对于195660年出生队列，19761980年出生队列中的男性饮酒更多[发病率比（IRR）=1.222：置信区间（CI）1.071.39]，并且有更多的5天以上（喝五杯或以上的天数）（IRR=1.365：CI 1.091.71），198085队列中的男性在体积（IRR=1.284：CI 1.101.50）和5天以上（IRR=1.437：CI 1.091.89）方面也是如此。对于女性，发现198085队列中的女性具有更高的饮酒量（IRR=1.299：CI 1.071.58）和更多的5天（IRR=1.547：CI 1.012.36）。针对饮料的模型发现，不同饮料的年龄模式不同，男女的烈酒和女性的葡萄酒的年龄模式相同，男性葡萄酒的年龄模式增加，而啤酒的年龄模式则从20岁出头开始下降。在美国，1976年至1985年出生的男性和1981年至1985年出生的女性的饮酒量高于之前或之后的年份。
Aims To estimate age-period-cohort models predicting alcohol volume, heavy drinking and beverage-specific alcohol volume in order to evaluate whether the 19761985 birth cohorts drink relatively heavily. Design Data from seven cross-sectional surveys of the USA conducted between 1979 and 2010 were utilized in negative binomial generalized linear models of age, period and cohort effects predicting alcohol measures. Setting General population surveys of the USA. Participants Thirty-six thousand four hundred and thirty-two US adults (aged 18 years or older). Measurements Monthly number of alcohol drinks, beer, wine and spirits drinks, and days drinking five or more drinks in the past year derived from beverage-specific graduated frequency questions. Findings Relative to the reference 195660 birth cohort, men in the 19761980 cohort for were found to consume more alcohol [incidence rate ratio (IRR)=1.222: confidence interval (CI) 1.071.39) and to have more 5+ days (the number of days having five or more drinks) (IRR=1.365: CI 1.091.71) as were men in the 198085 cohort for volume (IRR=1.284: CI 1.101.50) and 5+ days (IRR=1.437: CI 1.091.89). For women, those in the 198085 cohort were found to have higher alcohol volume (IRR=1.299: CI 1.071.58) and more 5+ days (IRR=1.547: CI 1.012.36). Beverage-specific models found different age patterns of volume by beverage with a flat age pattern for both genders' spirits and women's wine, an increasing age pattern for men's wine and a declining age pattern from those in their early 20s for beer. Conclusions In the USA, men born between 1976 and 1985, and women born between 1981 and 1985 have higher alcohol consumption than in earlier or later years.