Metapopulation dynamics and biological invasions: A spatially explicit model applied to a freshwater snail
Metapopulation dynamics and biological invasions: A spatially explicit model applied to a freshwater snail
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DOI：
10.1086/508669
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发表时间：
2006-12-01
影响因子：
2.9
通讯作者：
David, Patrice
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Facon, Benoit;David, Patrice
入侵生物的空间扩散是当代的一个主要问题。在这里，我们专注于入侵在固有的破碎的栖息地，如淡水系统，并探讨在这种情况下集合种群模型的有用性。最大似然法允许估计殖民和灭绝率，作为栖息地斑块大小和位置的函数，从时间序列的存在/不存在的数据。该框架还提供了这些估计和假设检验的置信区间。我们分析了以前未发表的12年的调查，介绍了蜗牛Tarebia granifera在47 Martinican河流的传播。简单的集合种群模型再现合理的精度几个定量方面的入侵，包括区域丰度，时空结构，和网站的殖民日期。敏感性分析表明，入侵序列强烈依赖于集合种群的大小（网站数量）和空间结构（网站之间的距离）。入侵历史也被随机事件加速，正如一条大型的中央河流所说明的那样，这条河流碰巧很早就被殖民并作为入侵池。最后，我们讨论了这种方法的好处，在破碎的景观入侵的理解。
The spatial spread of invading organisms is a major contemporary concern. We focus here on invasions in inherently fragmented habitats, such as freshwater systems, and explore the usefulness of metapopulation models in this context. Maximum-likelihood methods allow the estimation of colonization and extinction rates, as functions of habitat patch sizes and positions, from time series of presence/absence data. This framework also provides confidence intervals of these estimates and hypotheses tests. We analyze a previously unpublished 12-year survey of the spread of the introduced snail Tarebia granifera in 47 Martinican rivers. Simple metapopulation models reproduce with reasonable accuracy several quantitative aspects of the invasion, including regional abundance, spatiotemporal structure, and site-by-site colonization dates. Sensitivity analysis reveals that the invasion sequence depended strongly on metapopulation size (number of sites) and spatial structure (distances among sites). The invasion history has also been accelerated by stochastic events, as illustrated by a large, central river that happened to be colonized very early and served as an invasion pool. Finally, we discuss the benefits of this approach for the understanding of invasions in fragmented landscapes.