Firearm Homicide Incidence, Within-state Firearm Laws, and Interstate Firearm Laws in US Counties.
Firearm Homicide Incidence, Within-state Firearm Laws, and Interstate Firearm Laws in US Counties.
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DOI：
10.1097/ede.0000000000001262
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发表时间：
2021-01
期刊：
影响因子：
--
通讯作者：
Wiebe DJ
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
Morrison CN;Kaufman EJ;Humphreys DK;Wiebe DJ
枪支杀人案在枪支管制法律较多的美国各州发生频率较低。然而，枪支很容易跨州运输，一个地方的法律可能会影响另一个地方的枪支暴力。这项研究探讨了州内枪支法和枪支杀人之间的关联，同时考虑了附近其他州法律的干扰。分析单位为美国48个相邻州的3，107个县，在2000-2014年的15个年度面板中排列（n = 46，605）。相关措施是从CDC压缩死亡率数据中获得的枪支凶杀案。主要的独立措施是枪支法的数量和各类法律的比例（例如，背景调查，儿童接触预防法）。我们计算这些措施的州际法律使用县质心之间的地理重力函数。贝叶斯条件自回归泊松模型与州内枪支法和州际枪支法有关。在过去的15年里，所包括的县发生了172,726起枪支凶杀案。各州有3至100部枪支法。州内枪支法（IRR [发病率比] = 0.995，95%CI：0.992，0.997）和州际枪支法（IRR = 0.993，95%CI：0.990，0.996）与较少的枪支凶杀案独立相关，州内法律的相关性最强，而州际法律最弱。额外的枪支法律与更少的枪支凶杀案有关，无论是在法律颁布的州还是在美国其他地方。州际枪支法的干扰可能会使州内法律和枪支杀人研究协会产生偏见。
Firearm homicides occur less frequently in US states with more firearm control laws. However, firearms are easily transported across state lines, and laws in one location may affect firearm violence in another. This study examined associations between within-state firearm laws and firearm homicide while accounting for interference from laws in other nearby states. The units of analysis were 3,107 counties in the 48 contiguous US states, arrayed in 15 yearly panels for 2000–2014 (n = 46,605). The dependent measure was firearm homicides accessed from CDC Compressed Mortality Data. The main independent measures were counts of firearm laws and the proportion of laws within categories (e.g., background checks, child access prevention laws). We calculated these measures for interstate laws using a geographic gravity function between county centroids. Bayesian conditional autoregressive Poisson models related within-state firearm laws and interstate firearm laws to firearm homicides. There were 172,726 firearm homicides in the included counties over the 15 years. States had between 3 and 100 firearm laws. Within-state firearm laws (IRR [Incidence rate ratio] = 0.995, 95%CI: 0.992, 0.997) and interstate firearm laws (IRR = 0.993, 95%CI: 0.990, 0.996) were independently associated with fewer firearm homicides, and associations for within-state laws were strongest where interstate laws were weakest. Additional firearm laws are associated with fewer firearm homicides both within the states where the laws are enacted and elsewhere in the US. Interference from interstate firearm laws may bias associations for studies of within-state laws and firearm homicide.